Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature around Central Park, NYC, on May 5 clustering in the upper 50s to low 60s°F, driving the tight trader consensus across 56-67°F outcomes at 13-21% implied probabilities each. Recent observations show early May lows dipping to 46-50°F amid cool northerly flow, but a building upper-level ridge is shifting patterns toward milder conditions with southerly winds reducing radiational cooling potential. Differentiating factors include model spread on overnight cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing—clearer skies favor lower-end 54-57°F, while persistent stratus or light winds push toward 60-63°F. New 00Z runs and NWS updates by May 4 will likely narrow uncertainty as resolution nears.