Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 28% probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching 27°C on May 6, aligning closely with early May climatological averages of 26–27°C from China Meteorological Administration records, as spring transitions bring increasing solar insolation and warming continental air masses. The broad distribution reflects inherent short-term forecast uncertainty from divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS, where cloud cover, northerly winds advecting cooler Mongolian air, and urban heat island effects could swing outcomes by 2–3°C; lower probabilities for extremes (e.g., <23°C at 1.4% or >33°C at 0.2%) stem from historical rarity amid typical low precipitation and stable jet stream patterns. Key upcoming data: CMA's evening forecast update and satellite observations of cloud decks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 6?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 6?
27°C 35%
26°C 21%
25°C 21%
28°C 16%
NUEVO
$10,041 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,041 Vol.
6 may 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
21%
26°C
21%
27°C
35%
28°C
16%
29°C
10%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 35%
26°C 21%
25°C 21%
28°C 16%
NUEVO
$10,041 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,041 Vol.
6 may 2026
23°C or below
$2,757 Vol.
1%
24°C
$682 Vol.
2%
25°C
$789 Vol.
21%
26°C
$565 Vol.
21%
27°C
$598 Vol.
35%
28°C
$404 Vol.
16%
29°C
$230 Vol.
10%
30°C
$802 Vol.
1%
31°C
$636 Vol.
1%
32°C
$1,824 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$755 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 28% probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching 27°C on May 6, aligning closely with early May climatological averages of 26–27°C from China Meteorological Administration records, as spring transitions bring increasing solar insolation and warming continental air masses. The broad distribution reflects inherent short-term forecast uncertainty from divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS, where cloud cover, northerly winds advecting cooler Mongolian air, and urban heat island effects could swing outcomes by 2–3°C; lower probabilities for extremes (e.g., <23°C at 1.4% or >33°C at 0.2%) stem from historical rarity amid typical low precipitation and stable jet stream patterns. Key upcoming data: CMA's evening forecast update and satellite observations of cloud decks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ET
Volumen
$10,041Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 28% probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching 27°C on May 6, aligning closely with early May climatological averages of 26–27°C from China Meteorological Administration records, as spring transitions bring increasing solar insolation and warming continental air masses. The broad distribution reflects inherent short-term forecast uncertainty from divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS, where cloud cover, northerly winds advecting cooler Mongolian air, and urban heat island effects could swing outcomes by 2–3°C; lower probabilities for extremes (e.g., <23°C at 1.4% or >33°C at 0.2%) stem from historical rarity amid typical low precipitation and stable jet stream patterns. Key upcoming data: CMA's evening forecast update and satellite observations of cloud decks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,041Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 28% probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching 27°C on May 6, aligning closely with early May climatological averages of 26–27°C from China Meteorological Administration records, as spring transitions bring increasing solar insolation and warming continental air masses. The broad distribution reflects inherent short-term forecast uncertainty from divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS, where cloud cover, northerly winds advecting cooler Mongolian air, and urban heat island effects could swing outcomes by 2–3°C; lower probabilities for extremes (e.g., <23°C at 1.4% or >33°C at 0.2%) stem from historical rarity amid typical low precipitation and stable jet stream patterns. Key upcoming data: CMA's evening forecast update and satellite observations of cloud decks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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