Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50.5% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 8 reaching 13°C or below, reflecting short-term forecast uncertainty amid a recent cool spell in early May. The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest guidance projects a low of 16°C for May 8 under cloudy conditions with highs near 26°C, following a forecasted 15°C low on May 7, but ensemble models show variability due to lingering northerly airflow and potential for enhanced radiational cooling overnight. Recent observations, including a 12°C low on May 1—cooler than the early May historical average of about 14°C—have sustained trader skepticism toward warmer outcomes. Updated JMA forecasts expected later today could shift probabilities as the event nears resolution based on official Tokyo station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 8 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 8 de mayo?
16°C 21%
20°C 19%
19°C 14%
18°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
13°C o menos
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
4%
16°C
21%
17°C
19%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
19%
21°C
6%
22°C
2%
23°C o más
1%
16°C 21%
20°C 19%
19°C 14%
18°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
13°C o menos
$74 Vol.
1%
14°C
$89 Vol.
1%
15°C
$88 Vol.
4%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$8 Vol.
19%
18°C
$8 Vol.
22%
19°C
$14 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$44 Vol.
6%
22°C
$54 Vol.
2%
23°C o más
$69 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50.5% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 8 reaching 13°C or below, reflecting short-term forecast uncertainty amid a recent cool spell in early May. The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest guidance projects a low of 16°C for May 8 under cloudy conditions with highs near 26°C, following a forecasted 15°C low on May 7, but ensemble models show variability due to lingering northerly airflow and potential for enhanced radiational cooling overnight. Recent observations, including a 12°C low on May 1—cooler than the early May historical average of about 14°C—have sustained trader skepticism toward warmer outcomes. Updated JMA forecasts expected later today could shift probabilities as the event nears resolution based on official Tokyo station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$448Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50.5% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 8 reaching 13°C or below, reflecting short-term forecast uncertainty amid a recent cool spell in early May. The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest guidance projects a low of 16°C for May 8 under cloudy conditions with highs near 26°C, following a forecasted 15°C low on May 7, but ensemble models show variability due to lingering northerly airflow and potential for enhanced radiational cooling overnight. Recent observations, including a 12°C low on May 1—cooler than the early May historical average of about 14°C—have sustained trader skepticism toward warmer outcomes. Updated JMA forecasts expected later today could shift probabilities as the event nears resolution based on official Tokyo station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$448Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50.5% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 8 reaching 13°C or below, reflecting short-term forecast uncertainty amid a recent cool spell in early May. The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest guidance projects a low of 16°C for May 8 under cloudy conditions with highs near 26°C, following a forecasted 15°C low on May 7, but ensemble models show variability due to lingering northerly airflow and potential for enhanced radiational cooling overnight. Recent observations, including a 12°C low on May 1—cooler than the early May historical average of about 14°C—have sustained trader skepticism toward warmer outcomes. Updated JMA forecasts expected later today could shift probabilities as the event nears resolution based on official Tokyo station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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