Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 32.5% probability for Wuhan's highest temperature reaching exactly 31°C on May 6, reflecting short-range forecast model guidance from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles showing highs near 31°C under a building high-pressure ridge and sunny-to-cloudy skies. Recent observations confirm warming trends, with May 4 highs at 27°C under fine conditions and May 5 forecasts at 29°C, above early May climatological averages of 25–28°C. Key variables include model spread on cloud cover evolution, southerly wind persistence, and potential convective activity, which could push outcomes toward 32–33°C (22–20% implied odds) or cooler 29–30°C (13–15%) if instability develops. Updated 00Z and 12Z runs from CMA, GFS, and ECMWF models tomorrow will likely sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution based on official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on May 6?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 6?
32°C 36%
31°C 31%
33°C 21%
30°C 6%
NUEVO
$10,790 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,790 Vol.
6 may 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
6%
31°C
31%
32°C
36%
33°C
21%
34°C
1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 36%
31°C 31%
33°C 21%
30°C 6%
NUEVO
$10,790 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,790 Vol.
6 may 2026
27°C or below
$501 Vol.
1%
28°C
$287 Vol.
1%
29°C
$5,720 Vol.
1%
30°C
$911 Vol.
6%
31°C
$215 Vol.
31%
32°C
$301 Vol.
36%
33°C
$298 Vol.
21%
34°C
$855 Vol.
1%
35°C
$380 Vol.
1%
36°C
$187 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$1,139 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 32.5% probability for Wuhan's highest temperature reaching exactly 31°C on May 6, reflecting short-range forecast model guidance from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles showing highs near 31°C under a building high-pressure ridge and sunny-to-cloudy skies. Recent observations confirm warming trends, with May 4 highs at 27°C under fine conditions and May 5 forecasts at 29°C, above early May climatological averages of 25–28°C. Key variables include model spread on cloud cover evolution, southerly wind persistence, and potential convective activity, which could push outcomes toward 32–33°C (22–20% implied odds) or cooler 29–30°C (13–15%) if instability develops. Updated 00Z and 12Z runs from CMA, GFS, and ECMWF models tomorrow will likely sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution based on official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volumen
$10,790Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:44 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 32.5% probability for Wuhan's highest temperature reaching exactly 31°C on May 6, reflecting short-range forecast model guidance from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles showing highs near 31°C under a building high-pressure ridge and sunny-to-cloudy skies. Recent observations confirm warming trends, with May 4 highs at 27°C under fine conditions and May 5 forecasts at 29°C, above early May climatological averages of 25–28°C. Key variables include model spread on cloud cover evolution, southerly wind persistence, and potential convective activity, which could push outcomes toward 32–33°C (22–20% implied odds) or cooler 29–30°C (13–15%) if instability develops. Updated 00Z and 12Z runs from CMA, GFS, and ECMWF models tomorrow will likely sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution based on official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,790Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:44 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 32.5% probability for Wuhan's highest temperature reaching exactly 31°C on May 6, reflecting short-range forecast model guidance from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles showing highs near 31°C under a building high-pressure ridge and sunny-to-cloudy skies. Recent observations confirm warming trends, with May 4 highs at 27°C under fine conditions and May 5 forecasts at 29°C, above early May climatological averages of 25–28°C. Key variables include model spread on cloud cover evolution, southerly wind persistence, and potential convective activity, which could push outcomes toward 32–33°C (22–20% implied odds) or cooler 29–30°C (13–15%) if instability develops. Updated 00Z and 12Z runs from CMA, GFS, and ECMWF models tomorrow will likely sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution based on official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes