Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 62-65°F for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 6, driven by National Weather Service forecasts projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s amid a persistent marine layer. Cool Pacific sea surface temperatures near 55°F sustain stratocumulus clouds and advection fog over the coast, capping diurnal warming by reducing solar insolation despite light onshore winds of 5-10 mph. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show a 2-3°F spread, with 64-65°F slightly favored due to potential late-afternoon burn-off allowing modest heating, while stronger marine influence could limit to 62-63°F. Historical May highs average 65-67°F, but recent rainy patterns and rebuilding stratus favor the cooler outcomes. Watch NWS hourly updates for morning observations refining the peak.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 6?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 6?
64-65°F 40%
62-63°F 35%
66-67°F 19%
60-61°F 5.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
30%
64-65°F
40%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
<1%
64-65°F 40%
62-63°F 35%
66-67°F 19%
60-61°F 5.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
55°F or below
$542 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$327 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$319 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$227 Vol.
6%
62-63°F
$490 Vol.
30%
64-65°F
$391 Vol.
40%
66-67°F
$594 Vol.
19%
68-69°F
$277 Vol.
3%
70-71°F
$727 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$374 Vol.
1%
74°F or higher
$715 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 62-65°F for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 6, driven by National Weather Service forecasts projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s amid a persistent marine layer. Cool Pacific sea surface temperatures near 55°F sustain stratocumulus clouds and advection fog over the coast, capping diurnal warming by reducing solar insolation despite light onshore winds of 5-10 mph. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show a 2-3°F spread, with 64-65°F slightly favored due to potential late-afternoon burn-off allowing modest heating, while stronger marine influence could limit to 62-63°F. Historical May highs average 65-67°F, but recent rainy patterns and rebuilding stratus favor the cooler outcomes. Watch NWS hourly updates for morning observations refining the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volumen
$4,983Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 62-65°F for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 6, driven by National Weather Service forecasts projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s amid a persistent marine layer. Cool Pacific sea surface temperatures near 55°F sustain stratocumulus clouds and advection fog over the coast, capping diurnal warming by reducing solar insolation despite light onshore winds of 5-10 mph. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show a 2-3°F spread, with 64-65°F slightly favored due to potential late-afternoon burn-off allowing modest heating, while stronger marine influence could limit to 62-63°F. Historical May highs average 65-67°F, but recent rainy patterns and rebuilding stratus favor the cooler outcomes. Watch NWS hourly updates for morning observations refining the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,983Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 62-65°F for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 6, driven by National Weather Service forecasts projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s amid a persistent marine layer. Cool Pacific sea surface temperatures near 55°F sustain stratocumulus clouds and advection fog over the coast, capping diurnal warming by reducing solar insolation despite light onshore winds of 5-10 mph. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show a 2-3°F spread, with 64-65°F slightly favored due to potential late-afternoon burn-off allowing modest heating, while stronger marine influence could limit to 62-63°F. Historical May highs average 65-67°F, but recent rainy patterns and rebuilding stratus favor the cooler outcomes. Watch NWS hourly updates for morning observations refining the peak.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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