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Israel predictions & odds

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Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

<1%

$58M Vol.

$9M today

$2M Liq.

4

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?

100%

April 26

$20M Vol.

$9M today

$5M Liq.

2,477

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

35%

$19M Vol.

$675K today

$316K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

4%

$14M Vol.

$665K today

$322K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

8%

$36M Vol.

$541K today

$531K Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

Netanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

44%

December 31

$120M Vol.

$288K today

$277K Liq.

33

Ends in 8 months

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

8%

December 31

$7M Vol.

$260K today

$142K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

14%

December 31

$17M Vol.

$216K today

$332K Liq.

362

Ends in 2 months

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

3%

Bahrain

$5M Vol.

$152K today

$131K Liq.

1

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

42%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$6M Vol.

$130K today

$596K Liq.

193

Ends in 8 months

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

1%

April 30

$3M Vol.

$106K today

$10.8K Liq.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

21%

$16M Vol.

$104K today

$200K Liq.

6

Ends in 8 months

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

1%

UAE

$4M Vol.

$87.5K today

$185K Liq.

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

40%

$121K Vol.

$67.0K today

$32.7K Liq.

107

Ends in about 1 month

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

8%

June 30

$478K Vol.

$62.9K today

$112K Liq.

8

Ends in 2 months

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

11%

May 31

$1M Vol.

$37.9K Liq.

159

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

<1%

$3M Vol.

$62.3K Liq.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

15%

$657K Vol.

$36.7K Liq.

23

Ends in 2 months

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

35%

5

$7M Vol.

$433K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

12%

December 31, 2026

$729K Vol.

$49.7K Liq.

9

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Israel.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Israel that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $338.5M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Netanyahu out by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Netanyahu out by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 44% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Israel predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.