Naim Qassem assumed Hezbollah’s secretary-general role in late October 2024 after Israeli strikes eliminated Hassan Nasrallah and presumed successor Hashem Safieddine. As of mid-June 2026 he remains the publicly confirmed leader, delivering multiple televised addresses that reject direct talks with Israel, call for continued resistance, and urge Lebanese officials to avoid disarmament measures. Recent Israeli operations have targeted the group’s military infrastructure and mid-level figures, including Qassem’s personal secretary in April, yet no verified action has removed the secretary-general himself. Trader consensus reflected in low single-digit to low-teens implied probabilities for removal by June 30, 2026, aligns with the absence of confirmed leadership transitions, the group’s Shura Council continuity, and the short remaining window before resolution. Ongoing border clashes and diplomatic maneuvering could still alter the timeline if a major escalation or internal announcement occurs before the cutoff.