Ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, over nuclear ambitions and regime change aims, has entrenched hostilities, with recent airstrikes, missile barrages, and stalled ceasefire talks through late April driving trader consensus to an 88.5% implied probability against Israel reopening its Tehran embassy this year. Iran has threatened Israeli diplomatic missions in retaliation, while no official statements signal normalization—relations severed since the 1979 revolution remain frozen amid proxy conflicts and direct escalations. Absent a dramatic de-escalation, diplomatic breakthrough, or regime shift, structural barriers like mutual non-recognition and active war make reopening highly improbable before year-end.