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Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Oriente Medio

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

Sí

34% probabilidad
Polymarket

$18,944,323 Vol.

Sí

34% probabilidad
Polymarket

$18,944,323 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.A fragile ceasefire holds after U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets began February 28, 2026, costing $25 billion and depleting munitions stockpiles, with no ground invasion launched despite Pentagon plans presented to President Trump for seizing sites like Kharg Island. Recent stalled ceasefire talks, Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for ending hostilities—now under White House review—and threats of painful responses to potential renewed strikes have fostered trader consensus at 66.5% against invasion before 2027. Massive carrier and troop buildups signal escalation risks, but high costs, oil disruptions driving U.S. gas prices to $4.30/gallon, and diplomatic maneuvering outweigh prospects for boots-on-ground operations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$18,944,323
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.A fragile ceasefire holds after U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets began February 28, 2026, costing $25 billion and depleting munitions stockpiles, with no ground invasion launched despite Pentagon plans presented to President Trump for seizing sites like Kharg Island. Recent stalled ceasefire talks, Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for ending hostilities—now under White House review—and threats of painful responses to potential renewed strikes have fostered trader consensus at 66.5% against invasion before 2027. Massive carrier and troop buildups signal escalation risks, but high costs, oil disruptions driving U.S. gas prices to $4.30/gallon, and diplomatic maneuvering outweigh prospects for boots-on-ground operations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$18,944,323
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" con 34%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 34¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 34% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" ha generado $18.9 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" es "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" con 34%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 34% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.