**Recent de-escalation and diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran strongly support the 88.5% implied probability that no U.S. invasion will occur before 2027.** The 2026 Iran war, which began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military sites, missile capabilities, and leadership, remained an air and naval campaign rather than a ground invasion. Operations concluded with a ceasefire in April, followed by negotiations that produced a June 14 memorandum of understanding. This framework calls for an immediate ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, and further talks on nuclear issues over the subsequent 60 days, with a signing ceremony scheduled for June 19. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have repeatedly emphasized achievable objectives through air power and diplomacy without committing conventional ground forces, consistent with historical reluctance for large-scale occupation of Iran. With only six months remaining before 2027 and active mediation underway, traders view a shift toward full-scale invasion as unlikely absent major new escalations, which current developments do not indicate.