President Isaac Herzog's April 26 announcement rebuffing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's pardon request in his ongoing corruption trial has solidified trader consensus against a pardon by June 30, with "No" shares reflecting an 88% implied probability. Herzog instead urged renewed plea deal talks between Netanyahu's defense and prosecutors, prioritizing settlement over executive clemency amid political and wartime pressures. Netanyahu's trial testimony was canceled again on April 27 due to security concerns tied to multi-front conflicts, though courts rejected further delays, signaling judicial momentum. While U.S. President Trump's calls for a pardon add external pressure, Herzog's stance and lack of progress underscore significant institutional barriers, leaving little room for resolution before the deadline absent a major breakthrough.