Trader consensus reflects 79.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its decisive crackdown on the 2025–2026 protests—sparked by economic collapse and war escalation—which quelled uprisings by mid-January via IRGC-led massacres, arrests, and internet shutdowns. Despite currency devaluation exceeding 1.8 million rials per dollar, 65–70% inflation, and US port blockades crippling trade, security forces show no defections, with IRGC dominating decision-making amid ongoing military strikes. Recent Supreme Leader statements vowing defense of nuclear and missile programs, pro-government rallies in Tehran, and stalled US-Iran negotiations underscore resilience, aligning with historical patterns of repression enduring crises without internal fracture.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$16,131,460 Vol.
$16,131,460 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$16,131,460 Vol.
$16,131,460 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects 79.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its decisive crackdown on the 2025–2026 protests—sparked by economic collapse and war escalation—which quelled uprisings by mid-January via IRGC-led massacres, arrests, and internet shutdowns. Despite currency devaluation exceeding 1.8 million rials per dollar, 65–70% inflation, and US port blockades crippling trade, security forces show no defections, with IRGC dominating decision-making amid ongoing military strikes. Recent Supreme Leader statements vowing defense of nuclear and missile programs, pro-government rallies in Tehran, and stalled US-Iran negotiations underscore resilience, aligning with historical patterns of repression enduring crises without internal fracture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$16,131,460Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects 79.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its decisive crackdown on the 2025–2026 protests—sparked by economic collapse and war escalation—which quelled uprisings by mid-January via IRGC-led massacres, arrests, and internet shutdowns. Despite currency devaluation exceeding 1.8 million rials per dollar, 65–70% inflation, and US port blockades crippling trade, security forces show no defections, with IRGC dominating decision-making amid ongoing military strikes. Recent Supreme Leader statements vowing defense of nuclear and missile programs, pro-government rallies in Tehran, and stalled US-Iran negotiations underscore resilience, aligning with historical patterns of repression enduring crises without internal fracture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$16,137,323Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 79.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its decisive crackdown on the 2025–2026 protests—sparked by economic collapse and war escalation—which quelled uprisings by mid-January via IRGC-led massacres, arrests, and internet shutdowns. Despite currency devaluation exceeding 1.8 million rials per dollar, 65–70% inflation, and US port blockades crippling trade, security forces show no defections, with IRGC dominating decision-making amid ongoing military strikes. Recent Supreme Leader statements vowing defense of nuclear and missile programs, pro-government rallies in Tehran, and stalled US-Iran negotiations underscore resilience, aligning with historical patterns of repression enduring crises without internal fracture.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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