Recent high-level diplomatic signals have driven the 82.5% implied probability for a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. US President Trump stated that talks with Iranian leadership have reached advanced stages with approval from multiple regional actors, positioning a framework agreement or memorandum of understanding for potential signing within days. Negotiations, mediated through Oman and others, have advanced a sequenced approach: initial steps on ceasefire extension, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and sanctions relief, followed by a 60-day window to finalize nuclear provisions including limits on enrichment and removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Iranian officials have expressed caution on timing and details but confirmed ongoing engagement, sustaining trader expectations of resolution well ahead of the 2027 deadline amid the compressed post-conflict diplomatic window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,229,498 Vol.
$2,229,498 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$2,229,498 Vol.
$2,229,498 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level diplomatic signals have driven the 82.5% implied probability for a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. US President Trump stated that talks with Iranian leadership have reached advanced stages with approval from multiple regional actors, positioning a framework agreement or memorandum of understanding for potential signing within days. Negotiations, mediated through Oman and others, have advanced a sequenced approach: initial steps on ceasefire extension, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and sanctions relief, followed by a 60-day window to finalize nuclear provisions including limits on enrichment and removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Iranian officials have expressed caution on timing and details but confirmed ongoing engagement, sustaining trader expectations of resolution well ahead of the 2027 deadline amid the compressed post-conflict diplomatic window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volumen
$2,229,498Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent high-level diplomatic signals have driven the 82.5% implied probability for a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. US President Trump stated that talks with Iranian leadership have reached advanced stages with approval from multiple regional actors, positioning a framework agreement or memorandum of understanding for potential signing within days. Negotiations, mediated through Oman and others, have advanced a sequenced approach: initial steps on ceasefire extension, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and sanctions relief, followed by a 60-day window to finalize nuclear provisions including limits on enrichment and removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Iranian officials have expressed caution on timing and details but confirmed ongoing engagement, sustaining trader expectations of resolution well ahead of the 2027 deadline amid the compressed post-conflict diplomatic window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$2,232,571Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level diplomatic signals have driven the 82.5% implied probability for a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. US President Trump stated that talks with Iranian leadership have reached advanced stages with approval from multiple regional actors, positioning a framework agreement or memorandum of understanding for potential signing within days. Negotiations, mediated through Oman and others, have advanced a sequenced approach: initial steps on ceasefire extension, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and sanctions relief, followed by a 60-day window to finalize nuclear provisions including limits on enrichment and removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Iranian officials have expressed caution on timing and details but confirmed ongoing engagement, sustaining trader expectations of resolution well ahead of the 2027 deadline amid the compressed post-conflict diplomatic window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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