Recent diplomatic momentum has elevated trader expectations for a US-Iran nuclear agreement by late 2026. Following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in February 2026 and the subsequent two-week ceasefire announced in April, indirect talks resumed under Omani mediation, with reported progress on uranium stockpile limits, enrichment curbs, sanctions relief, and verification measures. As of mid-June 2026, US President Trump publicly stated that discussions had reached the highest Iranian leadership levels, with core terms conceptually approved by multiple regional actors including Israel and Gulf states, and a signing ceremony potentially imminent in Europe. These developments, alongside a 60-day negotiation window outlined in May ceasefire frameworks, underpin the 81.5% implied probability for Yes, reflecting trader assessment of advancing bilateral and multilateral diplomacy over the remainder of the year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,239,462 Vol.
$2,239,462 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$2,239,462 Vol.
$2,239,462 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum has elevated trader expectations for a US-Iran nuclear agreement by late 2026. Following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in February 2026 and the subsequent two-week ceasefire announced in April, indirect talks resumed under Omani mediation, with reported progress on uranium stockpile limits, enrichment curbs, sanctions relief, and verification measures. As of mid-June 2026, US President Trump publicly stated that discussions had reached the highest Iranian leadership levels, with core terms conceptually approved by multiple regional actors including Israel and Gulf states, and a signing ceremony potentially imminent in Europe. These developments, alongside a 60-day negotiation window outlined in May ceasefire frameworks, underpin the 81.5% implied probability for Yes, reflecting trader assessment of advancing bilateral and multilateral diplomacy over the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volumen
$2,239,462Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum has elevated trader expectations for a US-Iran nuclear agreement by late 2026. Following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in February 2026 and the subsequent two-week ceasefire announced in April, indirect talks resumed under Omani mediation, with reported progress on uranium stockpile limits, enrichment curbs, sanctions relief, and verification measures. As of mid-June 2026, US President Trump publicly stated that discussions had reached the highest Iranian leadership levels, with core terms conceptually approved by multiple regional actors including Israel and Gulf states, and a signing ceremony potentially imminent in Europe. These developments, alongside a 60-day negotiation window outlined in May ceasefire frameworks, underpin the 81.5% implied probability for Yes, reflecting trader assessment of advancing bilateral and multilateral diplomacy over the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$2,239,462Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum has elevated trader expectations for a US-Iran nuclear agreement by late 2026. Following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in February 2026 and the subsequent two-week ceasefire announced in April, indirect talks resumed under Omani mediation, with reported progress on uranium stockpile limits, enrichment curbs, sanctions relief, and verification measures. As of mid-June 2026, US President Trump publicly stated that discussions had reached the highest Iranian leadership levels, with core terms conceptually approved by multiple regional actors including Israel and Gulf states, and a signing ceremony potentially imminent in Europe. These developments, alongside a 60-day negotiation window outlined in May ceasefire frameworks, underpin the 81.5% implied probability for Yes, reflecting trader assessment of advancing bilateral and multilateral diplomacy over the remainder of the year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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