Amid ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan, trader consensus reflects a narrow edge for a nuclear deal before 2027 at 52.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of behind-the-scenes progress toward a phased agreement despite public stalemate. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore pre-conflict trade—postponing nuclear curbs—drew skepticism from the Trump administration, which demands Iran halt uranium enrichment, surrender stockpiles, and end ballistic missile development before lifting the naval blockade and sanctions. Divisions persist over sequencing, with US officials weighing limited strikes while mediators push for a memorandum of understanding in coming days; diplomatic breakthroughs like Islamabad talks or escalation signals could decisively tip the closely contested odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$852,946 Vol.
$852,946 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$852,946 Vol.
$852,946 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Amid ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan, trader consensus reflects a narrow edge for a nuclear deal before 2027 at 52.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of behind-the-scenes progress toward a phased agreement despite public stalemate. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore pre-conflict trade—postponing nuclear curbs—drew skepticism from the Trump administration, which demands Iran halt uranium enrichment, surrender stockpiles, and end ballistic missile development before lifting the naval blockade and sanctions. Divisions persist over sequencing, with US officials weighing limited strikes while mediators push for a memorandum of understanding in coming days; diplomatic breakthroughs like Islamabad talks or escalation signals could decisively tip the closely contested odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volumen
$852,946Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Amid ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan, trader consensus reflects a narrow edge for a nuclear deal before 2027 at 52.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of behind-the-scenes progress toward a phased agreement despite public stalemate. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore pre-conflict trade—postponing nuclear curbs—drew skepticism from the Trump administration, which demands Iran halt uranium enrichment, surrender stockpiles, and end ballistic missile development before lifting the naval blockade and sanctions. Divisions persist over sequencing, with US officials weighing limited strikes while mediators push for a memorandum of understanding in coming days; diplomatic breakthroughs like Islamabad talks or escalation signals could decisively tip the closely contested odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$853,993Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan, trader consensus reflects a narrow edge for a nuclear deal before 2027 at 52.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of behind-the-scenes progress toward a phased agreement despite public stalemate. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore pre-conflict trade—postponing nuclear curbs—drew skepticism from the Trump administration, which demands Iran halt uranium enrichment, surrender stockpiles, and end ballistic missile development before lifting the naval blockade and sanctions. Divisions persist over sequencing, with US officials weighing limited strikes while mediators push for a memorandum of understanding in coming days; diplomatic breakthroughs like Islamabad talks or escalation signals could decisively tip the closely contested odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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