Iran’s post-war leadership transition, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and greater IRGC influence following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, has reinforced centralized control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable developments, such as Iranian strikes on June 9–10 and high-level talks with UAE officials on June 11, demonstrate the regime’s continued ability to coordinate military and diplomatic actions without evident internal fractures. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 1.7% because no major factional defections, protests, or leadership challenges have materialized in the past month. A sudden elite split or external shock could still alter this assessment in the narrow remaining window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,776,873 Vol.
$1,776,873 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$1,776,873 Vol.
$1,776,873 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war leadership transition, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and greater IRGC influence following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, has reinforced centralized control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable developments, such as Iranian strikes on June 9–10 and high-level talks with UAE officials on June 11, demonstrate the regime’s continued ability to coordinate military and diplomatic actions without evident internal fractures. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 1.7% because no major factional defections, protests, or leadership challenges have materialized in the past month. A sudden elite split or external shock could still alter this assessment in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,776,873Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war leadership transition, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and greater IRGC influence following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, has reinforced centralized control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable developments, such as Iranian strikes on June 9–10 and high-level talks with UAE officials on June 11, demonstrate the regime’s continued ability to coordinate military and diplomatic actions without evident internal fractures. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 1.7% because no major factional defections, protests, or leadership challenges have materialized in the past month. A sudden elite split or external shock could still alter this assessment in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,780,881Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-war leadership transition, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and greater IRGC influence following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, has reinforced centralized control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable developments, such as Iranian strikes on June 9–10 and high-level talks with UAE officials on June 11, demonstrate the regime’s continued ability to coordinate military and diplomatic actions without evident internal fractures. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 1.7% because no major factional defections, protests, or leadership challenges have materialized in the past month. A sudden elite split or external shock could still alter this assessment in the narrow remaining window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes