Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability for no coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, assassinations—including Supreme Leader Khamenei's on February 28—and President Trump's repeated regime change claims, no verifiable internal overthrow has materialized. Recent unconfirmed rumors of IRGC power consolidation sidelining reformist President Pezeshkian and figures like Speaker Ghalibaf have fizzled without evidence, as Iranian officials dismiss them as failed U.S. infiltration near Isfahan. The IRGC's strengthened control over military operations underscores institutional cohesion rather than fracture, with no mass uprisings or factional splits evident in the past 30 days. Upcoming ceasefire talks could further stabilize the leadership.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$645,469 Vol.
$645,469 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$645,469 Vol.
$645,469 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability for no coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, assassinations—including Supreme Leader Khamenei's on February 28—and President Trump's repeated regime change claims, no verifiable internal overthrow has materialized. Recent unconfirmed rumors of IRGC power consolidation sidelining reformist President Pezeshkian and figures like Speaker Ghalibaf have fizzled without evidence, as Iranian officials dismiss them as failed U.S. infiltration near Isfahan. The IRGC's strengthened control over military operations underscores institutional cohesion rather than fracture, with no mass uprisings or factional splits evident in the past 30 days. Upcoming ceasefire talks could further stabilize the leadership.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$645,469Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability for no coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, assassinations—including Supreme Leader Khamenei's on February 28—and President Trump's repeated regime change claims, no verifiable internal overthrow has materialized. Recent unconfirmed rumors of IRGC power consolidation sidelining reformist President Pezeshkian and figures like Speaker Ghalibaf have fizzled without evidence, as Iranian officials dismiss them as failed U.S. infiltration near Isfahan. The IRGC's strengthened control over military operations underscores institutional cohesion rather than fracture, with no mass uprisings or factional splits evident in the past 30 days. Upcoming ceasefire talks could further stabilize the leadership.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$645,469Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability for no coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, assassinations—including Supreme Leader Khamenei's on February 28—and President Trump's repeated regime change claims, no verifiable internal overthrow has materialized. Recent unconfirmed rumors of IRGC power consolidation sidelining reformist President Pezeshkian and figures like Speaker Ghalibaf have fizzled without evidence, as Iranian officials dismiss them as failed U.S. infiltration near Isfahan. The IRGC's strengthened control over military operations underscores institutional cohesion rather than fracture, with no mass uprisings or factional splits evident in the past 30 days. Upcoming ceasefire talks could further stabilize the leadership.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes