**Trader consensus at 98.3% for "No" reflects Iran's regime maintaining firm control amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict and recent diplomatic progress.** The Islamic Republic has withstood February airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, January protests met with lethal crackdowns, and ongoing economic strain without signs of organized military or factional moves against the leadership. Recent developments, including US-Iran ceasefire talks, a reported agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and a planned signing in mid-June, have further stabilized the situation by shifting focus from internal upheaval to external negotiations. IRGC influence has grown during the war, but this appears integrated into regime structures rather than oppositional. Historical precedents like the 1953 coup or early 2026 rumors of failed internal challenges underscore that coordinated attempts require broad elite or military defections, which remain absent. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown in ceasefire talks, major leadership disputes over the terms of any deal, or rapid escalation from renewed strikes, though these appear unlikely before June 30 given current momentum toward de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,776,819 Vol.
$1,776,819 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$1,776,819 Vol.
$1,776,819 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus at 98.3% for "No" reflects Iran's regime maintaining firm control amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict and recent diplomatic progress.** The Islamic Republic has withstood February airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, January protests met with lethal crackdowns, and ongoing economic strain without signs of organized military or factional moves against the leadership. Recent developments, including US-Iran ceasefire talks, a reported agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and a planned signing in mid-June, have further stabilized the situation by shifting focus from internal upheaval to external negotiations. IRGC influence has grown during the war, but this appears integrated into regime structures rather than oppositional. Historical precedents like the 1953 coup or early 2026 rumors of failed internal challenges underscore that coordinated attempts require broad elite or military defections, which remain absent.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown in ceasefire talks, major leadership disputes over the terms of any deal, or rapid escalation from renewed strikes, though these appear unlikely before June 30 given current momentum toward de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,776,819Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus at 98.3% for "No" reflects Iran's regime maintaining firm control amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict and recent diplomatic progress.** The Islamic Republic has withstood February airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, January protests met with lethal crackdowns, and ongoing economic strain without signs of organized military or factional moves against the leadership. Recent developments, including US-Iran ceasefire talks, a reported agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and a planned signing in mid-June, have further stabilized the situation by shifting focus from internal upheaval to external negotiations. IRGC influence has grown during the war, but this appears integrated into regime structures rather than oppositional. Historical precedents like the 1953 coup or early 2026 rumors of failed internal challenges underscore that coordinated attempts require broad elite or military defections, which remain absent.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown in ceasefire talks, major leadership disputes over the terms of any deal, or rapid escalation from renewed strikes, though these appear unlikely before June 30 given current momentum toward de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,776,873Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus at 98.3% for "No" reflects Iran's regime maintaining firm control amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict and recent diplomatic progress.** The Islamic Republic has withstood February airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, January protests met with lethal crackdowns, and ongoing economic strain without signs of organized military or factional moves against the leadership. Recent developments, including US-Iran ceasefire talks, a reported agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and a planned signing in mid-June, have further stabilized the situation by shifting focus from internal upheaval to external negotiations. IRGC influence has grown during the war, but this appears integrated into regime structures rather than oppositional. Historical precedents like the 1953 coup or early 2026 rumors of failed internal challenges underscore that coordinated attempts require broad elite or military defections, which remain absent. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown in ceasefire talks, major leadership disputes over the terms of any deal, or rapid escalation from renewed strikes, though these appear unlikely before June 30 given current momentum toward de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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