Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran since February 2026, trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against a coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's institutional resilience under IRGC dominance despite factional tensions. Late April rumors of IRGC moves to sideline parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—linked to stalled ceasefire talks—proved unsubstantiated, with officials like Ghalibaf on April 29 claiming thwarted U.S. infiltration plots near Isfahan. No verifiable military or internal overthrow efforts have materialized in the past 30 days, bolstering "No" amid war pressures, while diplomatic rifts and Supreme Leader health speculation persist as potential but unconfirmed risks ahead of the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$644,461 Vol.
$644,461 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$644,461 Vol.
$644,461 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran since February 2026, trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against a coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's institutional resilience under IRGC dominance despite factional tensions. Late April rumors of IRGC moves to sideline parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—linked to stalled ceasefire talks—proved unsubstantiated, with officials like Ghalibaf on April 29 claiming thwarted U.S. infiltration plots near Isfahan. No verifiable military or internal overthrow efforts have materialized in the past 30 days, bolstering "No" amid war pressures, while diplomatic rifts and Supreme Leader health speculation persist as potential but unconfirmed risks ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$644,461Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran since February 2026, trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against a coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's institutional resilience under IRGC dominance despite factional tensions. Late April rumors of IRGC moves to sideline parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—linked to stalled ceasefire talks—proved unsubstantiated, with officials like Ghalibaf on April 29 claiming thwarted U.S. infiltration plots near Isfahan. No verifiable military or internal overthrow efforts have materialized in the past 30 days, bolstering "No" amid war pressures, while diplomatic rifts and Supreme Leader health speculation persist as potential but unconfirmed risks ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$644,461Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran since February 2026, trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against a coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's institutional resilience under IRGC dominance despite factional tensions. Late April rumors of IRGC moves to sideline parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—linked to stalled ceasefire talks—proved unsubstantiated, with officials like Ghalibaf on April 29 claiming thwarted U.S. infiltration plots near Isfahan. No verifiable military or internal overthrow efforts have materialized in the past 30 days, bolstering "No" amid war pressures, while diplomatic rifts and Supreme Leader health speculation persist as potential but unconfirmed risks ahead of the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes