Recent diplomatic momentum from indirect US-Iran talks, mediated by Oman and Pakistan, has shaped trader views on the likelihood of a nuclear agreement by the June 30 deadline. President Trump has publicly described a memorandum of understanding as largely negotiated, with emphasis on extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief, while deferring detailed enrichment limits and uranium stockpile measures to a follow-on 60-day period. Iranian officials have signaled openness to a framework but stressed caution on timing and scope, noting that core nuclear issues remain under discussion. This sequencing, combined with the narrow remaining window and unresolved verification details, underpins the current 65.5% implied probability for an accord.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de junio?
¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$9,462,476 Vol.
$9,462,476 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$9,462,476 Vol.
$9,462,476 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum from indirect US-Iran talks, mediated by Oman and Pakistan, has shaped trader views on the likelihood of a nuclear agreement by the June 30 deadline. President Trump has publicly described a memorandum of understanding as largely negotiated, with emphasis on extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief, while deferring detailed enrichment limits and uranium stockpile measures to a follow-on 60-day period. Iranian officials have signaled openness to a framework but stressed caution on timing and scope, noting that core nuclear issues remain under discussion. This sequencing, combined with the narrow remaining window and unresolved verification details, underpins the current 65.5% implied probability for an accord.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$9,462,476Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum from indirect US-Iran talks, mediated by Oman and Pakistan, has shaped trader views on the likelihood of a nuclear agreement by the June 30 deadline. President Trump has publicly described a memorandum of understanding as largely negotiated, with emphasis on extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief, while deferring detailed enrichment limits and uranium stockpile measures to a follow-on 60-day period. Iranian officials have signaled openness to a framework but stressed caution on timing and scope, noting that core nuclear issues remain under discussion. This sequencing, combined with the narrow remaining window and unresolved verification details, underpins the current 65.5% implied probability for an accord.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$9,488,554Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum from indirect US-Iran talks, mediated by Oman and Pakistan, has shaped trader views on the likelihood of a nuclear agreement by the June 30 deadline. President Trump has publicly described a memorandum of understanding as largely negotiated, with emphasis on extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief, while deferring detailed enrichment limits and uranium stockpile measures to a follow-on 60-day period. Iranian officials have signaled openness to a framework but stressed caution on timing and scope, noting that core nuclear issues remain under discussion. This sequencing, combined with the narrow remaining window and unresolved verification details, underpins the current 65.5% implied probability for an accord.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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