A fragile ceasefire holds following the US-Israel strikes on Iran that ignited war on February 28, 2026, but direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Iran remain absent, with negotiations centered on US-Iran channels mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad. Recent stalls over Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile program, proxy forces like Hezbollah, and Strait of Hormuz access have heightened tensions, as evidenced by exchanged threats and expired truce extensions in late April. Israel-Lebanon border talks resume amid US pressure for de-escalation, yet deep-seated enmity, reparations demands, and lack of mutual recognition pose formidable barriers to a permanent peace deal. Upcoming ceasefire deadlines and potential summits could sway dynamics, though trader consensus reflects profound skepticism.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$388,154 Vol.
30 abr 2026
April 30
1%
May 31
14%
30 de junio
8%
$388,154 Vol.
April 30
$157,947 Vol.
1%
May 31
$0 Vol.
14%
30 de junio
$73,540 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile ceasefire holds following the US-Israel strikes on Iran that ignited war on February 28, 2026, but direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Iran remain absent, with negotiations centered on US-Iran channels mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad. Recent stalls over Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile program, proxy forces like Hezbollah, and Strait of Hormuz access have heightened tensions, as evidenced by exchanged threats and expired truce extensions in late April. Israel-Lebanon border talks resume amid US pressure for de-escalation, yet deep-seated enmity, reparations demands, and lack of mutual recognition pose formidable barriers to a permanent peace deal. Upcoming ceasefire deadlines and potential summits could sway dynamics, though trader consensus reflects profound skepticism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volumen
$388,154Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile ceasefire holds following the US-Israel strikes on Iran that ignited war on February 28, 2026, but direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Iran remain absent, with negotiations centered on US-Iran channels mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad. Recent stalls over Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile program, proxy forces like Hezbollah, and Strait of Hormuz access have heightened tensions, as evidenced by exchanged threats and expired truce extensions in late April. Israel-Lebanon border talks resume amid US pressure for de-escalation, yet deep-seated enmity, reparations demands, and lack of mutual recognition pose formidable barriers to a permanent peace deal. Upcoming ceasefire deadlines and potential summits could sway dynamics, though trader consensus reflects profound skepticism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$388,154Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile ceasefire holds following the US-Israel strikes on Iran that ignited war on February 28, 2026, but direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Iran remain absent, with negotiations centered on US-Iran channels mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad. Recent stalls over Iran's nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile program, proxy forces like Hezbollah, and Strait of Hormuz access have heightened tensions, as evidenced by exchanged threats and expired truce extensions in late April. Israel-Lebanon border talks resume amid US pressure for de-escalation, yet deep-seated enmity, reparations demands, and lack of mutual recognition pose formidable barriers to a permanent peace deal. Upcoming ceasefire deadlines and potential summits could sway dynamics, though trader consensus reflects profound skepticism.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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