This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A fragile 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16 and recently extended amid U.S. mediation, has failed to advance Hezbollah disarmament, as the group vows to retain its weapons until Israel fully withdraws from Lebanese territory, releases prisoners, and funds reconstruction. Hezbollah fired rockets and drones into northern Israel on April 21, citing truce violations, while Israeli strikes killed 14 on April 27, underscoring persistent cross-border tensions. Lebanese government efforts, including a rejected February four-month disarmament timeline and army seizures of purported stockpiles—later revealed as largely symbolic—have yielded no substantive progress. Senior Hezbollah officials insist on rearming with superior arsenals, complicating UN Resolution 1701 implementation. Traders weigh low odds against upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and potential permanent security negotiations, where disarmament remains a distant prospect absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
A fragile 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16 and recently extended amid U.S. mediation, has failed to advance Hezbollah disarmament, as the group vows to retain its weapons until Israel fully withdraws from Lebanese territory, releases prisoners, and funds reconstruction. Hezbollah fired rockets and drones into northern Israel on April 21, citing truce violations, while Israeli strikes killed 14 on April 27, underscoring persistent cross-border tensions. Lebanese government efforts, including a rejected February four-month disarmament timeline and army seizures of purported stockpiles—later revealed as largely symbolic—have yielded no substantive progress. Senior Hezbollah officials insist on rearming with superior arsenals, complicating UN Resolution 1701 implementation. Traders weigh low odds against upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and potential permanent security negotiations, where disarmament remains a distant prospect absent major concessions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
May 1 2026
Qassem again rejects disarmament, saying the group will not “lay down its arms” while Israeli aggression continues, keeping the “Yes” probability low
December 31 drops to 22%5%
Qassem again rejects disarmament, saying the group will not “lay down its arms” while Israeli aggression continues, keeping the “Yes” probability low
Apr 28 2026
Qassem reiterates the refusal to disarm, calling any compromise an “epic battle” and urging Lebanon to back away from talks with Israel
April 30 dips to 0%2%
Qassem reiterates the refusal to disarm, calling any compromise an “epic battle” and urging Lebanon to back away from talks with Israel
Apr 27 2026
In a statement Qassem declares Hezbollah’s weapons “non‑negotiable” and rejects any disarmament discussion, causing the market’s biggest recent drop
December 31 jumps to 27%6%
In a statement Qassem declares Hezbollah’s weapons “non‑negotiable” and rejects any disarmament discussion, causing the market’s biggest recent drop
Apr 27 2026
In a written statement Qassem vows Hezbollah will “not relinquish its weapons or its defenses,” rejecting all disarmament proposals
April 30 dips to 0%2%
In a written statement Qassem vows Hezbollah will “not relinquish its weapons or its defenses,” rejecting all disarmament proposals
Apr 26 2026
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
Apr 25 2026
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
April 30 rises to 4%4%
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 20 2026
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the trigger,” underscoring continued resistance
Apr 19 2026
Qassem sets cease‑fire terms and warns that any truce must be mutual;
December 31 drops to 21%11%
he repeats that Hezbollah will keep its weapons until Israel fully withdraws, dampening hopes of a disarmament announcement
Apr 13 2026
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 0%1%
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
Apr 13 2026
Qassem publicly denounces upcoming Lebanon‑Israel talks as “futile” and warns the negotiations aim to force Hezbollah’s disarmament
April 30 dips to 1%3%
Qassem publicly denounces upcoming Lebanon‑Israel talks as “futile” and warns the negotiations aim to force Hezbollah’s disarmament
Apr 9 2026
Israeli strike kills Hezbollah secretary‑general Naim Qassem’s nephew and personal aide, Harshi, in Beirut
April 30 drops to 4%12%
Israeli strike kills Hezbollah secretary‑general Naim Qassem’s nephew and personal aide, Harshi, in Beirut
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 2 2026
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
Mar 2 2026
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of
December 31 plunges to 38%18%
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of concession as a negative signal
Feb 28 2026
Qassem’s televised speech stresses that Hezbollah’s arsenal is “non‑negotiable” and will not be handed over, reinforcing the group’s refusal to discuss disarmament
December 31 surges to 56%20%
Qassem’s televised speech stresses that Hezbollah’s arsenal is “non‑negotiable” and will not be handed over, reinforcing the group’s refusal to discuss disarmament
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah rejects the Lebanese cabinet’s four‑month timeline for the second phase of a nationwide disarmament plan, calling it a “mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
December 31 drops to 47%10%
Hezbollah rejects the Lebanese cabinet’s four‑month timeline for the second phase of a nationwide disarmament plan, calling it a “mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
Feb 16 2026
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem tells a ceremony that “any pressure will not make us surrender our weapons,” warning the Lebanese government that its disarmament push is a “major sin”
December 31 rises to 57%4%
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem tells a ceremony that “any pressure will not make us surrender our weapons,” warning the Lebanese government that its disarmament push is a “major sin”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A fragile 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16 and recently extended amid U.S. mediation, has failed to advance Hezbollah disarmament, as the group vows to retain its weapons until Israel fully withdraws from Lebanese territory, releases prisoners, and funds reconstruction. Hezbollah fired rockets and drones into northern Israel on April 21, citing truce violations, while Israeli strikes killed 14 on April 27, underscoring persistent cross-border tensions. Lebanese government efforts, including a rejected February four-month disarmament timeline and army seizures of purported stockpiles—later revealed as largely symbolic—have yielded no substantive progress. Senior Hezbollah officials insist on rearming with superior arsenals, complicating UN Resolution 1701 implementation. Traders weigh low odds against upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and potential permanent security negotiations, where disarmament remains a distant prospect absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
A fragile 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16 and recently extended amid U.S. mediation, has failed to advance Hezbollah disarmament, as the group vows to retain its weapons until Israel fully withdraws from Lebanese territory, releases prisoners, and funds reconstruction. Hezbollah fired rockets and drones into northern Israel on April 21, citing truce violations, while Israeli strikes killed 14 on April 27, underscoring persistent cross-border tensions. Lebanese government efforts, including a rejected February four-month disarmament timeline and army seizures of purported stockpiles—later revealed as largely symbolic—have yielded no substantive progress. Senior Hezbollah officials insist on rearming with superior arsenals, complicating UN Resolution 1701 implementation. Traders weigh low odds against upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and potential permanent security negotiations, where disarmament remains a distant prospect absent major concessions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
May 1 2026
Qassem again rejects disarmament, saying the group will not “lay down its arms” while Israeli aggression continues, keeping the “Yes” probability low
December 31 drops to 22%5%
Qassem again rejects disarmament, saying the group will not “lay down its arms” while Israeli aggression continues, keeping the “Yes” probability low
Apr 28 2026
Qassem reiterates the refusal to disarm, calling any compromise an “epic battle” and urging Lebanon to back away from talks with Israel
April 30 dips to 0%2%
Qassem reiterates the refusal to disarm, calling any compromise an “epic battle” and urging Lebanon to back away from talks with Israel
Apr 27 2026
In a statement Qassem declares Hezbollah’s weapons “non‑negotiable” and rejects any disarmament discussion, causing the market’s biggest recent drop
December 31 jumps to 27%6%
In a statement Qassem declares Hezbollah’s weapons “non‑negotiable” and rejects any disarmament discussion, causing the market’s biggest recent drop
Apr 27 2026
In a written statement Qassem vows Hezbollah will “not relinquish its weapons or its defenses,” rejecting all disarmament proposals
April 30 dips to 0%2%
In a written statement Qassem vows Hezbollah will “not relinquish its weapons or its defenses,” rejecting all disarmament proposals
Apr 26 2026
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
Apr 25 2026
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
April 30 rises to 4%4%
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 20 2026
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the trigger,” underscoring continued resistance
Apr 19 2026
Qassem sets cease‑fire terms and warns that any truce must be mutual;
December 31 drops to 21%11%
he repeats that Hezbollah will keep its weapons until Israel fully withdraws, dampening hopes of a disarmament announcement
Apr 13 2026
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 0%1%
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
Apr 13 2026
Qassem publicly denounces upcoming Lebanon‑Israel talks as “futile” and warns the negotiations aim to force Hezbollah’s disarmament
April 30 dips to 1%3%
Qassem publicly denounces upcoming Lebanon‑Israel talks as “futile” and warns the negotiations aim to force Hezbollah’s disarmament
Apr 9 2026
Israeli strike kills Hezbollah secretary‑general Naim Qassem’s nephew and personal aide, Harshi, in Beirut
April 30 drops to 4%12%
Israeli strike kills Hezbollah secretary‑general Naim Qassem’s nephew and personal aide, Harshi, in Beirut
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 2 2026
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
Mar 2 2026
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of
December 31 plunges to 38%18%
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of concession as a negative signal
Feb 28 2026
Qassem’s televised speech stresses that Hezbollah’s arsenal is “non‑negotiable” and will not be handed over, reinforcing the group’s refusal to discuss disarmament
December 31 surges to 56%20%
Qassem’s televised speech stresses that Hezbollah’s arsenal is “non‑negotiable” and will not be handed over, reinforcing the group’s refusal to discuss disarmament
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah rejects the Lebanese cabinet’s four‑month timeline for the second phase of a nationwide disarmament plan, calling it a “mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
December 31 drops to 47%10%
Hezbollah rejects the Lebanese cabinet’s four‑month timeline for the second phase of a nationwide disarmament plan, calling it a “mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
Feb 16 2026
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem tells a ceremony that “any pressure will not make us surrender our weapons,” warning the Lebanese government that its disarmament push is a “major sin”
December 31 rises to 57%4%
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem tells a ceremony that “any pressure will not make us surrender our weapons,” warning the Lebanese government that its disarmament push is a “major sin”
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 22%, seguido de "30 de abril" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 22¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 22% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" ha generado $1 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" es "31 de diciembre" con 22%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 22% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de abril" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $1 million operados en “¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 22¢ para "31 de diciembre" en el mercado "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 22% de que "31 de diciembre" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 22¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 78¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Dec 31, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 202 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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