US-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, the first since 1993, produced a conditional ceasefire framework in early June 2026 contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and withdrawing fighters south of the Litani River, with further political and security track meetings scheduled for late June. Hezbollah, excluded from negotiations, immediately rejected the terms and demanded full Israeli withdrawal as a precondition, while Israeli officials have tied any lasting agreement to the group's disarmament and border security guarantees. Multiple extensions of an April cessation of hostilities have been violated repeatedly amid continued strikes, complicating progress toward a comprehensive bilateral peace treaty that would recognize sovereignty and territorial integrity. These developments, alongside linkages to broader US-Iran diplomacy, shape trader assessments of near-term resolution prospects.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$4,018,497 Vol.
15 jun 2026
June 15
8%
June 30
15%
31 de julio
16%
$4,018,497 Vol.
June 15
$1,068,768 Vol.
8%
June 30
$1,245,019 Vol.
15%
31 de julio
$265 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, the first since 1993, produced a conditional ceasefire framework in early June 2026 contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and withdrawing fighters south of the Litani River, with further political and security track meetings scheduled for late June. Hezbollah, excluded from negotiations, immediately rejected the terms and demanded full Israeli withdrawal as a precondition, while Israeli officials have tied any lasting agreement to the group's disarmament and border security guarantees. Multiple extensions of an April cessation of hostilities have been violated repeatedly amid continued strikes, complicating progress toward a comprehensive bilateral peace treaty that would recognize sovereignty and territorial integrity. These developments, alongside linkages to broader US-Iran diplomacy, shape trader assessments of near-term resolution prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ET
Volumen
$4,018,497Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, the first since 1993, produced a conditional ceasefire framework in early June 2026 contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and withdrawing fighters south of the Litani River, with further political and security track meetings scheduled for late June. Hezbollah, excluded from negotiations, immediately rejected the terms and demanded full Israeli withdrawal as a precondition, while Israeli officials have tied any lasting agreement to the group's disarmament and border security guarantees. Multiple extensions of an April cessation of hostilities have been violated repeatedly amid continued strikes, complicating progress toward a comprehensive bilateral peace treaty that would recognize sovereignty and territorial integrity. These developments, alongside linkages to broader US-Iran diplomacy, shape trader assessments of near-term resolution prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$4,018,497Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, the first since 1993, produced a conditional ceasefire framework in early June 2026 contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and withdrawing fighters south of the Litani River, with further political and security track meetings scheduled for late June. Hezbollah, excluded from negotiations, immediately rejected the terms and demanded full Israeli withdrawal as a precondition, while Israeli officials have tied any lasting agreement to the group's disarmament and border security guarantees. Multiple extensions of an April cessation of hostilities have been violated repeatedly amid continued strikes, complicating progress toward a comprehensive bilateral peace treaty that would recognize sovereignty and territorial integrity. These developments, alongside linkages to broader US-Iran diplomacy, shape trader assessments of near-term resolution prospects.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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