**Ongoing US-Israel air and missile campaign against Iranian targets has dominated the 2026 conflict without confirmed large-scale Israeli ground operations inside Iran.** Strikes began intensifying in late February 2026 with coordinated US-Israeli attacks on military sites, nuclear facilities, and Strait of Hormuz assets, followed by Iranian missile responses and targeted assassinations of Iranian officials. Israeli ground activity has centered on southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, including expansions beyond the Litani River and ongoing strikes, rather than incursions into Iranian territory. Discussions of limited US ground options (raids or island seizures short of invasion) have surfaced in Pentagon planning, but Israeli statements emphasize air superiority and special operations while avoiding commitments to boots-on-the-ground in Iran due to terrain, scale, and costs. Recent June 2026 developments include fluctuating strikes, failed or partial ceasefires, and advancing US-Iran negotiations via Pakistan for a broader deal covering Lebanon and nuclear issues, reinforcing trader consensus that a confirmed Israeli ground operation remains unlikely absent major escalation. Resolution hinges on credible reporting of troop deployments or sustained operations on Iranian soil.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La operación terrestre de Israel en Irán confirmada por...?
¿La operación terrestre de Israel en Irán confirmada por...?
$1,442,710 Vol.
30 jun 2026
June 30
3%
$1,442,710 Vol.
June 30
$115,393 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. **Ongoing US-Israel air and missile campaign against Iranian targets has dominated the 2026 conflict without confirmed large-scale Israeli ground operations inside Iran.**
Strikes began intensifying in late February 2026 with coordinated US-Israeli attacks on military sites, nuclear facilities, and Strait of Hormuz assets, followed by Iranian missile responses and targeted assassinations of Iranian officials. Israeli ground activity has centered on southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, including expansions beyond the Litani River and ongoing strikes, rather than incursions into Iranian territory. Discussions of limited US ground options (raids or island seizures short of invasion) have surfaced in Pentagon planning, but Israeli statements emphasize air superiority and special operations while avoiding commitments to boots-on-the-ground in Iran due to terrain, scale, and costs.
Recent June 2026 developments include fluctuating strikes, failed or partial ceasefires, and advancing US-Iran negotiations via Pakistan for a broader deal covering Lebanon and nuclear issues, reinforcing trader consensus that a confirmed Israeli ground operation remains unlikely absent major escalation. Resolution hinges on credible reporting of troop deployments or sustained operations on Iranian soil.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado abierto: May 28, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Volumen
$1,442,710Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 28, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. **Ongoing US-Israel air and missile campaign against Iranian targets has dominated the 2026 conflict without confirmed large-scale Israeli ground operations inside Iran.**
Strikes began intensifying in late February 2026 with coordinated US-Israeli attacks on military sites, nuclear facilities, and Strait of Hormuz assets, followed by Iranian missile responses and targeted assassinations of Iranian officials. Israeli ground activity has centered on southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, including expansions beyond the Litani River and ongoing strikes, rather than incursions into Iranian territory. Discussions of limited US ground options (raids or island seizures short of invasion) have surfaced in Pentagon planning, but Israeli statements emphasize air superiority and special operations while avoiding commitments to boots-on-the-ground in Iran due to terrain, scale, and costs.
Recent June 2026 developments include fluctuating strikes, failed or partial ceasefires, and advancing US-Iran negotiations via Pakistan for a broader deal covering Lebanon and nuclear issues, reinforcing trader consensus that a confirmed Israeli ground operation remains unlikely absent major escalation. Resolution hinges on credible reporting of troop deployments or sustained operations on Iranian soil.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volumen
$1,442,710Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 28, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Israel air and missile campaign against Iranian targets has dominated the 2026 conflict without confirmed large-scale Israeli ground operations inside Iran.** Strikes began intensifying in late February 2026 with coordinated US-Israeli attacks on military sites, nuclear facilities, and Strait of Hormuz assets, followed by Iranian missile responses and targeted assassinations of Iranian officials. Israeli ground activity has centered on southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, including expansions beyond the Litani River and ongoing strikes, rather than incursions into Iranian territory. Discussions of limited US ground options (raids or island seizures short of invasion) have surfaced in Pentagon planning, but Israeli statements emphasize air superiority and special operations while avoiding commitments to boots-on-the-ground in Iran due to terrain, scale, and costs. Recent June 2026 developments include fluctuating strikes, failed or partial ceasefires, and advancing US-Iran negotiations via Pakistan for a broader deal covering Lebanon and nuclear issues, reinforcing trader consensus that a confirmed Israeli ground operation remains unlikely absent major escalation. Resolution hinges on credible reporting of troop deployments or sustained operations on Iranian soil.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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