Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 5, with ensemble models from global centers like ECMWF and GFS showing a spread of 11-20°C due to variable cloud cover and southerly flow persistence. Recent observations—highs of 20-21°C amid rain on May 1 rebounding to 25°C under clouds on May 2—suggest a mild air mass favoring elevated overnight lows around historical early-May averages of 14-16°C, boosted by Tokyo's urban heat island effect. However, potential radiative cooling under partial clearing differentiates cooler outcomes like 11-13°C (20% implied odds each) from warmer 20°C+ (25%). JMA updates expected twice daily will refine wind and humidity impacts on minimums at official observation sites.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
13°C 40%
15°C 35%
14°C 25%
16°C 6.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 may 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
6%
12°C
1%
13°C
40%
14°C
33%
15°C
35%
16°C
7%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
1%
13°C 40%
15°C 35%
14°C 25%
16°C 6.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 may 2026
10°C or below
$998 Vol.
1%
11°C
$171 Vol.
6%
12°C
$190 Vol.
1%
13°C
$41 Vol.
40%
14°C
$25 Vol.
33%
15°C
$127 Vol.
35%
16°C
$165 Vol.
7%
17°C
$25 Vol.
3%
18°C
$205 Vol.
1%
19°C
$158 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$462 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 5, with ensemble models from global centers like ECMWF and GFS showing a spread of 11-20°C due to variable cloud cover and southerly flow persistence. Recent observations—highs of 20-21°C amid rain on May 1 rebounding to 25°C under clouds on May 2—suggest a mild air mass favoring elevated overnight lows around historical early-May averages of 14-16°C, boosted by Tokyo's urban heat island effect. However, potential radiative cooling under partial clearing differentiates cooler outcomes like 11-13°C (20% implied odds each) from warmer 20°C+ (25%). JMA updates expected twice daily will refine wind and humidity impacts on minimums at official observation sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volumen
$2,568Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 5, with ensemble models from global centers like ECMWF and GFS showing a spread of 11-20°C due to variable cloud cover and southerly flow persistence. Recent observations—highs of 20-21°C amid rain on May 1 rebounding to 25°C under clouds on May 2—suggest a mild air mass favoring elevated overnight lows around historical early-May averages of 14-16°C, boosted by Tokyo's urban heat island effect. However, potential radiative cooling under partial clearing differentiates cooler outcomes like 11-13°C (20% implied odds each) from warmer 20°C+ (25%). JMA updates expected twice daily will refine wind and humidity impacts on minimums at official observation sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,568Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 5, with ensemble models from global centers like ECMWF and GFS showing a spread of 11-20°C due to variable cloud cover and southerly flow persistence. Recent observations—highs of 20-21°C amid rain on May 1 rebounding to 25°C under clouds on May 2—suggest a mild air mass favoring elevated overnight lows around historical early-May averages of 14-16°C, boosted by Tokyo's urban heat island effect. However, potential radiative cooling under partial clearing differentiates cooler outcomes like 11-13°C (20% implied odds each) from warmer 20°C+ (25%). JMA updates expected twice daily will refine wind and humidity impacts on minimums at official observation sites.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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