Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Paris's highest temperature on May 4, with Météo-France's latest guidance indicating a perturbed weather pattern featuring clouds and possible showers, keeping highs near seasonal norms of 17–19°C at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show a slight spread, favoring 19°C (28%) over 18–20°C outcomes due to lingering mild air from prior days' warmer conditions (24°C on May 2), tempered by Atlantic influences reducing insolation via overcast skies and light winds. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and any frontal timing shifts; new model updates expected May 3 could refine probabilities amid typical spring forecast divergence. Historical early-May highs average 18°C, underscoring the balanced market positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on May 4?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 4?
18°C 38%
19°C 31%
17°C 18%
20°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
5%
17°C
18%
18°C
38%
19°C
31%
20°C
12%
21°C
6%
22°C
4%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
18°C 38%
19°C 31%
17°C 18%
20°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
14°C or below
$21 Vol.
1%
15°C
$62 Vol.
1%
16°C
$32 Vol.
5%
17°C
$180 Vol.
18%
18°C
$253 Vol.
38%
19°C
$75 Vol.
31%
20°C
$15 Vol.
12%
21°C
$47 Vol.
6%
22°C
$64 Vol.
4%
23°C
$14 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$6 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Paris's highest temperature on May 4, with Météo-France's latest guidance indicating a perturbed weather pattern featuring clouds and possible showers, keeping highs near seasonal norms of 17–19°C at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show a slight spread, favoring 19°C (28%) over 18–20°C outcomes due to lingering mild air from prior days' warmer conditions (24°C on May 2), tempered by Atlantic influences reducing insolation via overcast skies and light winds. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and any frontal timing shifts; new model updates expected May 3 could refine probabilities amid typical spring forecast divergence. Historical early-May highs average 18°C, underscoring the balanced market positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$768Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Paris's highest temperature on May 4, with Météo-France's latest guidance indicating a perturbed weather pattern featuring clouds and possible showers, keeping highs near seasonal norms of 17–19°C at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show a slight spread, favoring 19°C (28%) over 18–20°C outcomes due to lingering mild air from prior days' warmer conditions (24°C on May 2), tempered by Atlantic influences reducing insolation via overcast skies and light winds. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and any frontal timing shifts; new model updates expected May 3 could refine probabilities amid typical spring forecast divergence. Historical early-May highs average 18°C, underscoring the balanced market positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$768Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Paris's highest temperature on May 4, with Météo-France's latest guidance indicating a perturbed weather pattern featuring clouds and possible showers, keeping highs near seasonal norms of 17–19°C at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show a slight spread, favoring 19°C (28%) over 18–20°C outcomes due to lingering mild air from prior days' warmer conditions (24°C on May 2), tempered by Atlantic influences reducing insolation via overcast skies and light winds. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and any frontal timing shifts; new model updates expected May 3 could refine probabilities amid typical spring forecast divergence. Historical early-May highs average 18°C, underscoring the balanced market positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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