Current Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble models project Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 4 around 14-17°C, reflecting early May climatological norms of 13-15°C lows amid spring's variable patterns, but with significant spread due to uncertain nocturnal cloud cover and light winds that could enable radiative cooling to 14°C or below. Trader consensus, with 37% implied probability for 14°C or cooler versus 29.5% for 24°C or higher, captures this divergence: clear skies favor cooler outcomes via enhanced surface cooling, while persistent southerly flow or urban heat island effects under high pressure could sustain unusually warm lows. Recent above-normal spring temperatures, May 1 rains, and May 2 highs exceeding 24°C heighten uncertainty; watch JMA updates on May 3 for refined guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
14°C or below 25.0%
18°C 23%
17°C 22%
16°C 21%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
14°C or below
25%
15°C
18%
16°C
21%
17°C
22%
18°C
23%
19°C
19%
20°C
16%
21°C
8%
22°C
6%
23°C
8%
24°C or higher
2%
14°C or below 25.0%
18°C 23%
17°C 22%
16°C 21%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
14°C or below
$28 Vol.
25%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
23%
19°C
$0 Vol.
19%
20°C
$0 Vol.
16%
21°C
$0 Vol.
8%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$28 Vol.
8%
24°C or higher
$28 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble models project Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 4 around 14-17°C, reflecting early May climatological norms of 13-15°C lows amid spring's variable patterns, but with significant spread due to uncertain nocturnal cloud cover and light winds that could enable radiative cooling to 14°C or below. Trader consensus, with 37% implied probability for 14°C or cooler versus 29.5% for 24°C or higher, captures this divergence: clear skies favor cooler outcomes via enhanced surface cooling, while persistent southerly flow or urban heat island effects under high pressure could sustain unusually warm lows. Recent above-normal spring temperatures, May 1 rains, and May 2 highs exceeding 24°C heighten uncertainty; watch JMA updates on May 3 for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$84Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble models project Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 4 around 14-17°C, reflecting early May climatological norms of 13-15°C lows amid spring's variable patterns, but with significant spread due to uncertain nocturnal cloud cover and light winds that could enable radiative cooling to 14°C or below. Trader consensus, with 37% implied probability for 14°C or cooler versus 29.5% for 24°C or higher, captures this divergence: clear skies favor cooler outcomes via enhanced surface cooling, while persistent southerly flow or urban heat island effects under high pressure could sustain unusually warm lows. Recent above-normal spring temperatures, May 1 rains, and May 2 highs exceeding 24°C heighten uncertainty; watch JMA updates on May 3 for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$84Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble models project Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 4 around 14-17°C, reflecting early May climatological norms of 13-15°C lows amid spring's variable patterns, but with significant spread due to uncertain nocturnal cloud cover and light winds that could enable radiative cooling to 14°C or below. Trader consensus, with 37% implied probability for 14°C or cooler versus 29.5% for 24°C or higher, captures this divergence: clear skies favor cooler outcomes via enhanced surface cooling, while persistent southerly flow or urban heat island effects under high pressure could sustain unusually warm lows. Recent above-normal spring temperatures, May 1 rains, and May 2 highs exceeding 24°C heighten uncertainty; watch JMA updates on May 3 for refined guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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