Latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like GFS and ECMWF project a high temperature near 26-27°C in Mexico City on May 3, aligning with trader-implied probabilities favoring these outcomes at 33% and 26.5%, respectively. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's May climatology averages 26.3°C peaks amid dry-season warmth, but a recent heat dome elevated April highs to 31-34°C; incoming mid-level moisture and 60-70% thunderstorm risk introduce cooling via cloud cover and precipitation, differentiating the closely matched leaders. Ensemble model spread reflects uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer heating and convective onset, with SMN's next regional update expected within 24 hours to refine resolution odds based on Benito Juárez Airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 3?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 3?
26°C 34%
27°C 31%
25°C 20%
28°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
9%
25°C
18%
26°C
34%
27°C
31%
28°C
16%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
2%
26°C 34%
27°C 31%
25°C 20%
28°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 may 2026
20°C or below
$2,930 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,759 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,341 Vol.
1%
23°C
$122 Vol.
2%
24°C
$91 Vol.
9%
25°C
$57 Vol.
18%
26°C
$82 Vol.
34%
27°C
$53 Vol.
31%
28°C
$97 Vol.
16%
29°C
$87 Vol.
4%
30°C or higher
$291 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like GFS and ECMWF project a high temperature near 26-27°C in Mexico City on May 3, aligning with trader-implied probabilities favoring these outcomes at 33% and 26.5%, respectively. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's May climatology averages 26.3°C peaks amid dry-season warmth, but a recent heat dome elevated April highs to 31-34°C; incoming mid-level moisture and 60-70% thunderstorm risk introduce cooling via cloud cover and precipitation, differentiating the closely matched leaders. Ensemble model spread reflects uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer heating and convective onset, with SMN's next regional update expected within 24 hours to refine resolution odds based on Benito Juárez Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$6,911Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like GFS and ECMWF project a high temperature near 26-27°C in Mexico City on May 3, aligning with trader-implied probabilities favoring these outcomes at 33% and 26.5%, respectively. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's May climatology averages 26.3°C peaks amid dry-season warmth, but a recent heat dome elevated April highs to 31-34°C; incoming mid-level moisture and 60-70% thunderstorm risk introduce cooling via cloud cover and precipitation, differentiating the closely matched leaders. Ensemble model spread reflects uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer heating and convective onset, with SMN's next regional update expected within 24 hours to refine resolution odds based on Benito Juárez Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,911Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like GFS and ECMWF project a high temperature near 26-27°C in Mexico City on May 3, aligning with trader-implied probabilities favoring these outcomes at 33% and 26.5%, respectively. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's May climatology averages 26.3°C peaks amid dry-season warmth, but a recent heat dome elevated April highs to 31-34°C; incoming mid-level moisture and 60-70% thunderstorm risk introduce cooling via cloud cover and precipitation, differentiating the closely matched leaders. Ensemble model spread reflects uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer heating and convective onset, with SMN's next regional update expected within 24 hours to refine resolution odds based on Benito Juárez Airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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