Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast ensembles projecting Tokyo's May 6 overnight low near 14°C, with a 2-4°C spread across models driving closely matched implied probabilities peaking at 20% for 13-15°C outcomes. This uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover influencing radiative cooling—clearer skies favor lower readings toward 11-12°C or below, while scattered showers or southerly winds could trap heat and elevate minima to 16°C or higher. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo further buffer extremes above rural baselines. Historical early-May lows average 14°C with standard deviations of ~2.5°C, aligning with current positioning. JMA's next advisory update on May 4-5 will provide observational data to potentially sharpen odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
16°C 35%
14°C 31%
15°C 31%
17°C 21%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
13%
14°C
31%
15°C
31%
16°C
35%
17°C
21%
18°C
7%
19°C
5%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 35%
14°C 31%
15°C 31%
17°C 21%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
11°C or below
$143 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$143 Vol.
1%
13°C
$30 Vol.
13%
14°C
$0 Vol.
31%
15°C
$0 Vol.
31%
16°C
$12 Vol.
35%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$1 Vol.
7%
19°C
$61 Vol.
5%
20°C
$49 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$133 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast ensembles projecting Tokyo's May 6 overnight low near 14°C, with a 2-4°C spread across models driving closely matched implied probabilities peaking at 20% for 13-15°C outcomes. This uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover influencing radiative cooling—clearer skies favor lower readings toward 11-12°C or below, while scattered showers or southerly winds could trap heat and elevate minima to 16°C or higher. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo further buffer extremes above rural baselines. Historical early-May lows average 14°C with standard deviations of ~2.5°C, aligning with current positioning. JMA's next advisory update on May 4-5 will provide observational data to potentially sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$572Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast ensembles projecting Tokyo's May 6 overnight low near 14°C, with a 2-4°C spread across models driving closely matched implied probabilities peaking at 20% for 13-15°C outcomes. This uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover influencing radiative cooling—clearer skies favor lower readings toward 11-12°C or below, while scattered showers or southerly winds could trap heat and elevate minima to 16°C or higher. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo further buffer extremes above rural baselines. Historical early-May lows average 14°C with standard deviations of ~2.5°C, aligning with current positioning. JMA's next advisory update on May 4-5 will provide observational data to potentially sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$572Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast ensembles projecting Tokyo's May 6 overnight low near 14°C, with a 2-4°C spread across models driving closely matched implied probabilities peaking at 20% for 13-15°C outcomes. This uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover influencing radiative cooling—clearer skies favor lower readings toward 11-12°C or below, while scattered showers or southerly winds could trap heat and elevate minima to 16°C or higher. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo further buffer extremes above rural baselines. Historical early-May lows average 14°C with standard deviations of ~2.5°C, aligning with current positioning. JMA's next advisory update on May 4-5 will provide observational data to potentially sharpen odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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