Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for London's highest temperature on May 4, with 16°C (23.5% implied probability) edging out 15°C and 17°C (both 20.5%) amid Met Office and BBC forecasts pinning daytime highs near 18°C under overcast skies and light showers. Persistent cloud cover—limiting solar insolation and trapping cooler air—along with a shift to northerly winds following warmer weekend peaks (22°C Saturday, 19°C Sunday), drives the downward skew from official guidance, aligning closely with May climatological averages around 17°C at Heathrow. Model ensembles show variability in cloud breaks and precipitation timing, with fresh updates expected Sunday potentially clarifying if transient sunny spells push toward 18-19°C or reinforce mid-teens outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in London on May 4?
Highest temperature in London on May 4?
17°C 28%
16°C 24%
15°C 21%
18°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
10%
15°C
21%
16°C
24%
17°C
28%
18°C
12%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 28%
16°C 24%
15°C 21%
18°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
12°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
3%
14°C
$16 Vol.
10%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$81 Vol.
24%
17°C
$23 Vol.
28%
18°C
$34 Vol.
12%
19°C
$315 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$5 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for London's highest temperature on May 4, with 16°C (23.5% implied probability) edging out 15°C and 17°C (both 20.5%) amid Met Office and BBC forecasts pinning daytime highs near 18°C under overcast skies and light showers. Persistent cloud cover—limiting solar insolation and trapping cooler air—along with a shift to northerly winds following warmer weekend peaks (22°C Saturday, 19°C Sunday), drives the downward skew from official guidance, aligning closely with May climatological averages around 17°C at Heathrow. Model ensembles show variability in cloud breaks and precipitation timing, with fresh updates expected Sunday potentially clarifying if transient sunny spells push toward 18-19°C or reinforce mid-teens outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
Volumen
$503Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:44 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for London's highest temperature on May 4, with 16°C (23.5% implied probability) edging out 15°C and 17°C (both 20.5%) amid Met Office and BBC forecasts pinning daytime highs near 18°C under overcast skies and light showers. Persistent cloud cover—limiting solar insolation and trapping cooler air—along with a shift to northerly winds following warmer weekend peaks (22°C Saturday, 19°C Sunday), drives the downward skew from official guidance, aligning closely with May climatological averages around 17°C at Heathrow. Model ensembles show variability in cloud breaks and precipitation timing, with fresh updates expected Sunday potentially clarifying if transient sunny spells push toward 18-19°C or reinforce mid-teens outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$503Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:44 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for London's highest temperature on May 4, with 16°C (23.5% implied probability) edging out 15°C and 17°C (both 20.5%) amid Met Office and BBC forecasts pinning daytime highs near 18°C under overcast skies and light showers. Persistent cloud cover—limiting solar insolation and trapping cooler air—along with a shift to northerly winds following warmer weekend peaks (22°C Saturday, 19°C Sunday), drives the downward skew from official guidance, aligning closely with May climatological averages around 17°C at Heathrow. Model ensembles show variability in cloud breaks and precipitation timing, with fresh updates expected Sunday potentially clarifying if transient sunny spells push toward 18-19°C or reinforce mid-teens outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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