Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (26.5%) and 25°C (24.0%) as the highest temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 4, reflecting uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecast ensembles amid this spring's persistent above-average warmth. Recent midday readings exceeding 24°C on May 2—well above the early May climatological average of 22°C—have sustained bullish sentiment for mid-20s highs, driven by a stubborn high-pressure ridge aloft promoting sunny intervals and elevated insolation. However, an approaching weak frontal boundary introduces variability, with models diverging on cloud cover and scattered showers that could cap peaks at 22-23°C or allow brief clearing for 25-26°C. JMA's next advisory on May 3 will refine timing of any precipitation, a key differentiator for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
24°C 33%
25°C 30%
26°C 19%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
3%
22°C
3%
23°C
11%
24°C
33%
25°C
30%
26°C
19%
27°C
6%
28°C or higher
4%
24°C 33%
25°C 30%
26°C 19%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
18°C or below
$125 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$267 Vol.
2%
20°C
$26 Vol.
2%
21°C
$114 Vol.
3%
22°C
$26 Vol.
3%
23°C
$39 Vol.
11%
24°C
$128 Vol.
33%
25°C
$18 Vol.
30%
26°C
$4 Vol.
19%
27°C
$58 Vol.
6%
28°C or higher
$73 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (26.5%) and 25°C (24.0%) as the highest temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 4, reflecting uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecast ensembles amid this spring's persistent above-average warmth. Recent midday readings exceeding 24°C on May 2—well above the early May climatological average of 22°C—have sustained bullish sentiment for mid-20s highs, driven by a stubborn high-pressure ridge aloft promoting sunny intervals and elevated insolation. However, an approaching weak frontal boundary introduces variability, with models diverging on cloud cover and scattered showers that could cap peaks at 22-23°C or allow brief clearing for 25-26°C. JMA's next advisory on May 3 will refine timing of any precipitation, a key differentiator for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$847Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (26.5%) and 25°C (24.0%) as the highest temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 4, reflecting uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecast ensembles amid this spring's persistent above-average warmth. Recent midday readings exceeding 24°C on May 2—well above the early May climatological average of 22°C—have sustained bullish sentiment for mid-20s highs, driven by a stubborn high-pressure ridge aloft promoting sunny intervals and elevated insolation. However, an approaching weak frontal boundary introduces variability, with models diverging on cloud cover and scattered showers that could cap peaks at 22-23°C or allow brief clearing for 25-26°C. JMA's next advisory on May 3 will refine timing of any precipitation, a key differentiator for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$847Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (26.5%) and 25°C (24.0%) as the highest temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station on May 4, reflecting uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecast ensembles amid this spring's persistent above-average warmth. Recent midday readings exceeding 24°C on May 2—well above the early May climatological average of 22°C—have sustained bullish sentiment for mid-20s highs, driven by a stubborn high-pressure ridge aloft promoting sunny intervals and elevated insolation. However, an approaching weak frontal boundary introduces variability, with models diverging on cloud cover and scattered showers that could cap peaks at 22-23°C or allow brief clearing for 25-26°C. JMA's next advisory on May 3 will refine timing of any precipitation, a key differentiator for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes