Trader consensus on Polymarket positions a 10°C low temperature in Paris on May 6 at 44.5% implied probability, driven by the latest extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather indicating an overnight minimum near 9°C under northerly winds introducing cooler North Atlantic air after unseasonably warm early May highs exceeding 25°C. Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS analogs, converge on 9-11°C lows amid high humidity (70-75%) and scattered showers, aligning with historical early May averages of 9°C while pricing out extremes like 15°C+ (2.5%) due to the absence of heat dome persistence. Inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving upper-air patterns persists; Météo-France daily updates through May 5 will refine trader positioning ahead of official station measurements resolving the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Paris on May 6?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 6?
10°C 29%
11°C 19.4%
12°C 18%
9°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
7%
8°C
9%
9°C
22%
10°C
29%
11°C
19%
12°C
18%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C or higher
<1%
10°C 29%
11°C 19.4%
12°C 18%
9°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
5°C or below
$165 Vol.
1%
6°C
$148 Vol.
1%
7°C
$0 Vol.
7%
8°C
$12 Vol.
9%
9°C
$21 Vol.
22%
10°C
$29 Vol.
29%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$180 Vol.
2%
14°C
$869 Vol.
1%
15°C or higher
$500 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions a 10°C low temperature in Paris on May 6 at 44.5% implied probability, driven by the latest extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather indicating an overnight minimum near 9°C under northerly winds introducing cooler North Atlantic air after unseasonably warm early May highs exceeding 25°C. Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS analogs, converge on 9-11°C lows amid high humidity (70-75%) and scattered showers, aligning with historical early May averages of 9°C while pricing out extremes like 15°C+ (2.5%) due to the absence of heat dome persistence. Inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving upper-air patterns persists; Météo-France daily updates through May 5 will refine trader positioning ahead of official station measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$1,925Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions a 10°C low temperature in Paris on May 6 at 44.5% implied probability, driven by the latest extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather indicating an overnight minimum near 9°C under northerly winds introducing cooler North Atlantic air after unseasonably warm early May highs exceeding 25°C. Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS analogs, converge on 9-11°C lows amid high humidity (70-75%) and scattered showers, aligning with historical early May averages of 9°C while pricing out extremes like 15°C+ (2.5%) due to the absence of heat dome persistence. Inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving upper-air patterns persists; Météo-France daily updates through May 5 will refine trader positioning ahead of official station measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,925Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions a 10°C low temperature in Paris on May 6 at 44.5% implied probability, driven by the latest extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather indicating an overnight minimum near 9°C under northerly winds introducing cooler North Atlantic air after unseasonably warm early May highs exceeding 25°C. Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS analogs, converge on 9-11°C lows amid high humidity (70-75%) and scattered showers, aligning with historical early May averages of 9°C while pricing out extremes like 15°C+ (2.5%) due to the absence of heat dome persistence. Inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving upper-air patterns persists; Météo-France daily updates through May 5 will refine trader positioning ahead of official station measurements resolving the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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