Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of global weather model forecasts for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 15-16°C—matching the co-leading 21% implied probabilities for those outcomes—amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover that limit radiative cooling. Recent observations show early May 2026 cooler than the 15.5°C climatological average, with May 3-4 lows near 13-14°C under overcast skies per timeanddate.com data, but a warming trend emerges as high-pressure builds. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on morning cloud dissipation and urban heat island effects, introducing 2-3°C uncertainty; new China Meteorological Administration and model updates expected by May 4 could sharpen the outlook before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
15°C 43%
14°C 14%
17°C 7.9%
16°C 7.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 may 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
14%
15°C
41%
16°C
7%
17°C
8%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
15°C 43%
14°C 14%
17°C 7.9%
16°C 7.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 may 2026
11°C or below
$45 Vol.
1%
12°C
$12 Vol.
1%
13°C
$6 Vol.
5%
14°C
$36 Vol.
14%
15°C
$39 Vol.
41%
16°C
$47 Vol.
7%
17°C
$21 Vol.
8%
18°C
$53 Vol.
2%
19°C
$15 Vol.
1%
20°C
$455 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$152 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of global weather model forecasts for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 15-16°C—matching the co-leading 21% implied probabilities for those outcomes—amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover that limit radiative cooling. Recent observations show early May 2026 cooler than the 15.5°C climatological average, with May 3-4 lows near 13-14°C under overcast skies per timeanddate.com data, but a warming trend emerges as high-pressure builds. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on morning cloud dissipation and urban heat island effects, introducing 2-3°C uncertainty; new China Meteorological Administration and model updates expected by May 4 could sharpen the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volumen
$880Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of global weather model forecasts for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 15-16°C—matching the co-leading 21% implied probabilities for those outcomes—amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover that limit radiative cooling. Recent observations show early May 2026 cooler than the 15.5°C climatological average, with May 3-4 lows near 13-14°C under overcast skies per timeanddate.com data, but a warming trend emerges as high-pressure builds. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on morning cloud dissipation and urban heat island effects, introducing 2-3°C uncertainty; new China Meteorological Administration and model updates expected by May 4 could sharpen the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$880Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of global weather model forecasts for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 15-16°C—matching the co-leading 21% implied probabilities for those outcomes—amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover that limit radiative cooling. Recent observations show early May 2026 cooler than the 15.5°C climatological average, with May 3-4 lows near 13-14°C under overcast skies per timeanddate.com data, but a warming trend emerges as high-pressure builds. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on morning cloud dissipation and urban heat island effects, introducing 2-3°C uncertainty; new China Meteorological Administration and model updates expected by May 4 could sharpen the outlook before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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