Trader sentiment for Shanghai's May 4 minimum temperature reveals profound forecast uncertainty, with market-implied odds split evenly between extremes like 8°C or below and 18°C or higher at 25.5% each, reflecting divergent global model ensembles such as GFS and ECMWF on post-frontal evolution. A recent cold front sweeping the Yangtze River Delta brought rain and lows near 11°C on May 1–2, cooling the region below May climatological norms of 16°C; however, dry overcast conditions forecast for May 4 introduce variables like radiative cooling under potential sky clearing versus trapped heat from persistent stratus clouds. Light winds (8 mph) and low humidity (29%) favor deeper cooling, but new 00Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates today could sharpen consensus ahead of pre-dawn minimums at Pudong or central stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 4 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 4 de mayo?
14°C 98.2%
13°C 1.0%
12°C <1%
11°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
8°C o menos
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
98%
14°C 98.2%
13°C 1.0%
12°C <1%
11°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
8°C o menos
$523 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$268 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$479 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$363 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$310 Vol.
1%
13°C
$400 Vol.
1%
14°C
$987 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Shanghai's May 4 minimum temperature reveals profound forecast uncertainty, with market-implied odds split evenly between extremes like 8°C or below and 18°C or higher at 25.5% each, reflecting divergent global model ensembles such as GFS and ECMWF on post-frontal evolution. A recent cold front sweeping the Yangtze River Delta brought rain and lows near 11°C on May 1–2, cooling the region below May climatological norms of 16°C; however, dry overcast conditions forecast for May 4 introduce variables like radiative cooling under potential sky clearing versus trapped heat from persistent stratus clouds. Light winds (8 mph) and low humidity (29%) favor deeper cooling, but new 00Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates today could sharpen consensus ahead of pre-dawn minimums at Pudong or central stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$5,512Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Shanghai's May 4 minimum temperature reveals profound forecast uncertainty, with market-implied odds split evenly between extremes like 8°C or below and 18°C or higher at 25.5% each, reflecting divergent global model ensembles such as GFS and ECMWF on post-frontal evolution. A recent cold front sweeping the Yangtze River Delta brought rain and lows near 11°C on May 1–2, cooling the region below May climatological norms of 16°C; however, dry overcast conditions forecast for May 4 introduce variables like radiative cooling under potential sky clearing versus trapped heat from persistent stratus clouds. Light winds (8 mph) and low humidity (29%) favor deeper cooling, but new 00Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates today could sharpen consensus ahead of pre-dawn minimums at Pudong or central stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$5,512Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shanghai's May 4 minimum temperature reveals profound forecast uncertainty, with market-implied odds split evenly between extremes like 8°C or below and 18°C or higher at 25.5% each, reflecting divergent global model ensembles such as GFS and ECMWF on post-frontal evolution. A recent cold front sweeping the Yangtze River Delta brought rain and lows near 11°C on May 1–2, cooling the region below May climatological norms of 16°C; however, dry overcast conditions forecast for May 4 introduce variables like radiative cooling under potential sky clearing versus trapped heat from persistent stratus clouds. Light winds (8 mph) and low humidity (29%) favor deeper cooling, but new 00Z model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates today could sharpen consensus ahead of pre-dawn minimums at Pudong or central stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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