Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Paris's lowest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 9–16°C due to ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs amid a transitioning weather pattern. Recent Météo-France updates show a mild spell persisting through May 3 (lows 15–16°C), but incoming southwestern oceanic air introduces variable cloud cover and light showers, potentially limiting radiative cooling overnight and favoring 11–16°C outcomes. Clearer skies in drier model scenarios could push lows toward 9–10°C, while overcast conditions support 14–15°C; extremes below 8°C or 17°C+ remain unlikely given climatological May norms (average low ~9–10°C) and current mild boundary layer conditions. Watch for afternoon model refreshes from Météo-France and NOAA for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Paris on May 4?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 4?
11°C 28%
12°C 27%
13°C 25%
14°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
7°C or below
2%
8°C
5%
9°C
6%
10°C
11%
11°C
28%
12°C
27%
13°C
25%
14°C
14%
15°C
9%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
10%
11°C 28%
12°C 27%
13°C 25%
14°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
8°C
$0 Vol.
5%
9°C
$0 Vol.
6%
10°C
$0 Vol.
11%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C
$0 Vol.
9%
16°C
$0 Vol.
5%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Paris's lowest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 9–16°C due to ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs amid a transitioning weather pattern. Recent Météo-France updates show a mild spell persisting through May 3 (lows 15–16°C), but incoming southwestern oceanic air introduces variable cloud cover and light showers, potentially limiting radiative cooling overnight and favoring 11–16°C outcomes. Clearer skies in drier model scenarios could push lows toward 9–10°C, while overcast conditions support 14–15°C; extremes below 8°C or 17°C+ remain unlikely given climatological May norms (average low ~9–10°C) and current mild boundary layer conditions. Watch for afternoon model refreshes from Météo-France and NOAA for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Paris's lowest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 9–16°C due to ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs amid a transitioning weather pattern. Recent Météo-France updates show a mild spell persisting through May 3 (lows 15–16°C), but incoming southwestern oceanic air introduces variable cloud cover and light showers, potentially limiting radiative cooling overnight and favoring 11–16°C outcomes. Clearer skies in drier model scenarios could push lows toward 9–10°C, while overcast conditions support 14–15°C; extremes below 8°C or 17°C+ remain unlikely given climatological May norms (average low ~9–10°C) and current mild boundary layer conditions. Watch for afternoon model refreshes from Météo-France and NOAA for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Paris's lowest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 9–16°C due to ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs amid a transitioning weather pattern. Recent Météo-France updates show a mild spell persisting through May 3 (lows 15–16°C), but incoming southwestern oceanic air introduces variable cloud cover and light showers, potentially limiting radiative cooling overnight and favoring 11–16°C outcomes. Clearer skies in drier model scenarios could push lows toward 9–10°C, while overcast conditions support 14–15°C; extremes below 8°C or 17°C+ remain unlikely given climatological May norms (average low ~9–10°C) and current mild boundary layer conditions. Watch for afternoon model refreshes from Météo-France and NOAA for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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