Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 9–11°C in Toronto on May 1, with Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) latest morning forecast calling for 12°C under increasing cloudiness and a 30% chance of afternoon showers, but models like GEM ensembles imply cooler peaks due to persistent post-frontal cloud cover limiting solar heating. The tight race among these outcomes stems from uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and exact timing of partial clearing, as current cold air mass—evidenced by today's frost advisory and 8°C readings at Pearson Airport—caps diurnal warming below seasonal norms of around 14°C. Overnight 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs, plus early hourly observations, could sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Toronto on May 1?
Highest temperature in Toronto on May 1?
10°C 35%
9°C 31%
11°C 17%
8°C 8%
NUEVO
$13,720 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,720 Vol.
1 may 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
8%
9°C
31%
10°C
35%
11°C
17%
12°C
6%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 35%
9°C 31%
11°C 17%
8°C 8%
NUEVO
$13,720 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,720 Vol.
1 may 2026
4°C or below
$2,336 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$188 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$1,197 Vol.
1%
7°C
$2,055 Vol.
2%
8°C
$1,484 Vol.
8%
9°C
$850 Vol.
31%
10°C
$1,146 Vol.
35%
11°C
$837 Vol.
17%
12°C
$805 Vol.
6%
13°C
$1,242 Vol.
1%
14°C or higher
$1,858 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 9–11°C in Toronto on May 1, with Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) latest morning forecast calling for 12°C under increasing cloudiness and a 30% chance of afternoon showers, but models like GEM ensembles imply cooler peaks due to persistent post-frontal cloud cover limiting solar heating. The tight race among these outcomes stems from uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and exact timing of partial clearing, as current cold air mass—evidenced by today's frost advisory and 8°C readings at Pearson Airport—caps diurnal warming below seasonal norms of around 14°C. Overnight 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs, plus early hourly observations, could sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$13,720Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 9–11°C in Toronto on May 1, with Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) latest morning forecast calling for 12°C under increasing cloudiness and a 30% chance of afternoon showers, but models like GEM ensembles imply cooler peaks due to persistent post-frontal cloud cover limiting solar heating. The tight race among these outcomes stems from uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and exact timing of partial clearing, as current cold air mass—evidenced by today's frost advisory and 8°C readings at Pearson Airport—caps diurnal warming below seasonal norms of around 14°C. Overnight 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs, plus early hourly observations, could sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,720Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 9–11°C in Toronto on May 1, with Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) latest morning forecast calling for 12°C under increasing cloudiness and a 30% chance of afternoon showers, but models like GEM ensembles imply cooler peaks due to persistent post-frontal cloud cover limiting solar heating. The tight race among these outcomes stems from uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and exact timing of partial clearing, as current cold air mass—evidenced by today's frost advisory and 8°C readings at Pearson Airport—caps diurnal warming below seasonal norms of around 14°C. Overnight 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs, plus early hourly observations, could sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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