Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Seoul's lowest temperature on May 4, with implied probabilities closely clustered around cooler outcomes like 5°C or below (25.1%) and warmer ones like 15°C or higher (25.0%), driven by ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs showing a 5–15°C range. Yesterday's KMA-observed minimum of 12°C under stable high pressure and light westerly winds sets a mild baseline, but potential northerly cold air advection or increased cloud cover from passing fronts could suppress lows to 5–10°C, while clearer skies and southerly flow favor 13–15°C+. Korea Meteorological Administration short-range updates, expected daily, and model consensus shifts will clarify steering patterns and radiative cooling potential before resolution at Seoul's official station. Climatological May early lows average 11–13°C, amplifying model disagreements.