Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have converged on Warsaw highs of 27-28°C on May 4 under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, delivering subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly winds advecting mild continental air—well above the climatological early-May average of 19°C from IMGW and NOAA baselines. This setup, building since May 2's observed 15-26°C range, positions 29°C or higher at 50.5% implied probability, reflecting GFS outliers favoring enhanced surface heating, while ECMWF's cooler ~25°C tilt bolsters 26-28°C outcomes near 35-36%. Model spread highlights uncertainty in cloud cover and exact ridge strength; IMGW updates and new runs due by May 3 could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 4?
28°C 28%
27°C 20%
26°C 19%
29°C or higher 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
14%
27°C
26%
28°C
25%
29°C or higher
15%
28°C 28%
27°C 20%
26°C 19%
29°C or higher 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
19°C or below
$15 Vol.
1%
20°C
$5 Vol.
1%
21°C
$57 Vol.
1%
22°C
$10 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
2%
24°C
$10 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
6%
26°C
$6 Vol.
14%
27°C
$28 Vol.
26%
28°C
$43 Vol.
25%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have converged on Warsaw highs of 27-28°C on May 4 under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, delivering subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly winds advecting mild continental air—well above the climatological early-May average of 19°C from IMGW and NOAA baselines. This setup, building since May 2's observed 15-26°C range, positions 29°C or higher at 50.5% implied probability, reflecting GFS outliers favoring enhanced surface heating, while ECMWF's cooler ~25°C tilt bolsters 26-28°C outcomes near 35-36%. Model spread highlights uncertainty in cloud cover and exact ridge strength; IMGW updates and new runs due by May 3 could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Volumen
$97Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have converged on Warsaw highs of 27-28°C on May 4 under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, delivering subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly winds advecting mild continental air—well above the climatological early-May average of 19°C from IMGW and NOAA baselines. This setup, building since May 2's observed 15-26°C range, positions 29°C or higher at 50.5% implied probability, reflecting GFS outliers favoring enhanced surface heating, while ECMWF's cooler ~25°C tilt bolsters 26-28°C outcomes near 35-36%. Model spread highlights uncertainty in cloud cover and exact ridge strength; IMGW updates and new runs due by May 3 could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$97Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:47 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have converged on Warsaw highs of 27-28°C on May 4 under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, delivering subsidence warming, clear skies, and southerly winds advecting mild continental air—well above the climatological early-May average of 19°C from IMGW and NOAA baselines. This setup, building since May 2's observed 15-26°C range, positions 29°C or higher at 50.5% implied probability, reflecting GFS outliers favoring enhanced surface heating, while ECMWF's cooler ~25°C tilt bolsters 26-28°C outcomes near 35-36%. Model spread highlights uncertainty in cloud cover and exact ridge strength; IMGW updates and new runs due by May 3 could shift trader consensus as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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