Latest National Weather Service guidance for LaGuardia Airport in New York City points to a high temperature of 62-65°F on May 1, aligning with closely matched Polymarket odds favoring 62-63°F (41.5% implied probability) over 64-65°F (34.8%), as traders weigh subtle model variances. NOAA's GFS ensemble leans slightly cooler due to anticipated mid-level clouds from a passing shortwave trough and light onshore flow capping boundary layer heating, while ECMWF shows marginally more diurnal mixing potential for upper-60s peaks. Climatological normals hover near 63°F, but persistent cloudiness amid neutral ENSO conditions tempers extremes. Key uncertainties include morning clearing rates and exact wind shear; watch for 12Z model updates and NWS hourly refinements resolving the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on May 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 1?
62-63°F 43%
64-65°F 34.8%
60-61°F 15%
66-67°F 6.5%
NUEVO
$23,885 Vol.
NUEVO
$23,885 Vol.
1 may 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
43%
64-65°F
35%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
<1%
72°F or higher
<1%
62-63°F 43%
64-65°F 34.8%
60-61°F 15%
66-67°F 6.5%
NUEVO
$23,885 Vol.
NUEVO
$23,885 Vol.
1 may 2026
53°F or below
$1,891 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$3,351 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$4,235 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$2,443 Vol.
3%
60-61°F
$972 Vol.
15%
62-63°F
$1,587 Vol.
43%
64-65°F
$1,374 Vol.
35%
66-67°F
$1,247 Vol.
6%
68-69°F
$1,996 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$826 Vol.
<1%
72°F or higher
$4,722 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance for LaGuardia Airport in New York City points to a high temperature of 62-65°F on May 1, aligning with closely matched Polymarket odds favoring 62-63°F (41.5% implied probability) over 64-65°F (34.8%), as traders weigh subtle model variances. NOAA's GFS ensemble leans slightly cooler due to anticipated mid-level clouds from a passing shortwave trough and light onshore flow capping boundary layer heating, while ECMWF shows marginally more diurnal mixing potential for upper-60s peaks. Climatological normals hover near 63°F, but persistent cloudiness amid neutral ENSO conditions tempers extremes. Key uncertainties include morning clearing rates and exact wind shear; watch for 12Z model updates and NWS hourly refinements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$23,885Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance for LaGuardia Airport in New York City points to a high temperature of 62-65°F on May 1, aligning with closely matched Polymarket odds favoring 62-63°F (41.5% implied probability) over 64-65°F (34.8%), as traders weigh subtle model variances. NOAA's GFS ensemble leans slightly cooler due to anticipated mid-level clouds from a passing shortwave trough and light onshore flow capping boundary layer heating, while ECMWF shows marginally more diurnal mixing potential for upper-60s peaks. Climatological normals hover near 63°F, but persistent cloudiness amid neutral ENSO conditions tempers extremes. Key uncertainties include morning clearing rates and exact wind shear; watch for 12Z model updates and NWS hourly refinements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$23,885Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance for LaGuardia Airport in New York City points to a high temperature of 62-65°F on May 1, aligning with closely matched Polymarket odds favoring 62-63°F (41.5% implied probability) over 64-65°F (34.8%), as traders weigh subtle model variances. NOAA's GFS ensemble leans slightly cooler due to anticipated mid-level clouds from a passing shortwave trough and light onshore flow capping boundary layer heating, while ECMWF shows marginally more diurnal mixing potential for upper-60s peaks. Climatological normals hover near 63°F, but persistent cloudiness amid neutral ENSO conditions tempers extremes. Key uncertainties include morning clearing rates and exact wind shear; watch for 12Z model updates and NWS hourly refinements resolving the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes