Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project the lowest temperature at Central Park, New York City, on May 1 around 46-49°F, aligning with trader sentiment favoring 48-49°F (45% implied probability) and 46-47°F (30.5%). This consensus stems from recent model runs over the past 24 hours showing partly cloudy skies overnight with light winds around 5-10 mph from the south, limiting radiational cooling after early showers clear, while urban heat island effects temper deeper chills. These conditions track slightly below the May 1 climatological average low of 50°F. Inherent short-range uncertainty remains, with potential 2-3°F swings from cloud timing or boundary layer mixing; watch afternoon NWS updates and midnight observations for final positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in NYC on May 1?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?
48-49°F 52%
46-47°F 31%
50-51°F 10.5%
44-45°F 9.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
37°F or below
1%
38-39°F
1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
3%
44-45°F
9%
46-47°F
31%
48-49°F
45%
50-51°F
11%
52-53°F
2%
54-55°F
1%
56°F or higher
1%
48-49°F 52%
46-47°F 31%
50-51°F 10.5%
44-45°F 9.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
37°F or below
$5,370 Vol.
1%
38-39°F
$1,368 Vol.
1%
40-41°F
$244 Vol.
1%
42-43°F
$249 Vol.
3%
44-45°F
$366 Vol.
9%
46-47°F
$255 Vol.
31%
48-49°F
$267 Vol.
45%
50-51°F
$115 Vol.
11%
52-53°F
$141 Vol.
2%
54-55°F
$295 Vol.
1%
56°F or higher
$1,255 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project the lowest temperature at Central Park, New York City, on May 1 around 46-49°F, aligning with trader sentiment favoring 48-49°F (45% implied probability) and 46-47°F (30.5%). This consensus stems from recent model runs over the past 24 hours showing partly cloudy skies overnight with light winds around 5-10 mph from the south, limiting radiational cooling after early showers clear, while urban heat island effects temper deeper chills. These conditions track slightly below the May 1 climatological average low of 50°F. Inherent short-range uncertainty remains, with potential 2-3°F swings from cloud timing or boundary layer mixing; watch afternoon NWS updates and midnight observations for final positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volumen
$9,903Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project the lowest temperature at Central Park, New York City, on May 1 around 46-49°F, aligning with trader sentiment favoring 48-49°F (45% implied probability) and 46-47°F (30.5%). This consensus stems from recent model runs over the past 24 hours showing partly cloudy skies overnight with light winds around 5-10 mph from the south, limiting radiational cooling after early showers clear, while urban heat island effects temper deeper chills. These conditions track slightly below the May 1 climatological average low of 50°F. Inherent short-range uncertainty remains, with potential 2-3°F swings from cloud timing or boundary layer mixing; watch afternoon NWS updates and midnight observations for final positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,903Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project the lowest temperature at Central Park, New York City, on May 1 around 46-49°F, aligning with trader sentiment favoring 48-49°F (45% implied probability) and 46-47°F (30.5%). This consensus stems from recent model runs over the past 24 hours showing partly cloudy skies overnight with light winds around 5-10 mph from the south, limiting radiational cooling after early showers clear, while urban heat island effects temper deeper chills. These conditions track slightly below the May 1 climatological average low of 50°F. Inherent short-range uncertainty remains, with potential 2-3°F swings from cloud timing or boundary layer mixing; watch afternoon NWS updates and midnight observations for final positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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