Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (28.5% implied probability) and 22°C (26.5%), driven by China Meteorological Administration guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting daytime maxima in a narrow 21–24°C range under persistent overcast conditions from a lingering upper-level trough over the Sichuan Basin. May 1's confirmed high of 20°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—below the early-May climatological norm of ~24°C—stems from extensive cloud cover limiting solar insolation and light showers, with southerly flow potentially adding marginal warmth. Model discrepancies on afternoon clearing and basin topography effects create uncertainty; new 00Z forecast runs from CMA and global models could refine probabilities ahead of the afternoon peak.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 2?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 2?
23°C 31%
22°C 27%
21°C 15%
24°C 14%
NUEVO
$17,622 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,622 Vol.
2 may 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
15%
22°C
27%
23°C
31%
24°C
14%
25°C
6%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
23°C 31%
22°C 27%
21°C 15%
24°C 14%
NUEVO
$17,622 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,622 Vol.
2 may 2026
17°C or below
$2,546 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,356 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,091 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,170 Vol.
3%
21°C
$637 Vol.
15%
22°C
$683 Vol.
27%
23°C
$1,383 Vol.
31%
24°C
$718 Vol.
14%
25°C
$1,982 Vol.
6%
26°C
$1,997 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$1,067 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (28.5% implied probability) and 22°C (26.5%), driven by China Meteorological Administration guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting daytime maxima in a narrow 21–24°C range under persistent overcast conditions from a lingering upper-level trough over the Sichuan Basin. May 1's confirmed high of 20°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—below the early-May climatological norm of ~24°C—stems from extensive cloud cover limiting solar insolation and light showers, with southerly flow potentially adding marginal warmth. Model discrepancies on afternoon clearing and basin topography effects create uncertainty; new 00Z forecast runs from CMA and global models could refine probabilities ahead of the afternoon peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volumen
$17,622Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (28.5% implied probability) and 22°C (26.5%), driven by China Meteorological Administration guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting daytime maxima in a narrow 21–24°C range under persistent overcast conditions from a lingering upper-level trough over the Sichuan Basin. May 1's confirmed high of 20°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—below the early-May climatological norm of ~24°C—stems from extensive cloud cover limiting solar insolation and light showers, with southerly flow potentially adding marginal warmth. Model discrepancies on afternoon clearing and basin topography effects create uncertainty; new 00Z forecast runs from CMA and global models could refine probabilities ahead of the afternoon peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17,622Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (28.5% implied probability) and 22°C (26.5%), driven by China Meteorological Administration guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting daytime maxima in a narrow 21–24°C range under persistent overcast conditions from a lingering upper-level trough over the Sichuan Basin. May 1's confirmed high of 20°C at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—below the early-May climatological norm of ~24°C—stems from extensive cloud cover limiting solar insolation and light showers, with southerly flow potentially adding marginal warmth. Model discrepancies on afternoon clearing and basin topography effects create uncertainty; new 00Z forecast runs from CMA and global models could refine probabilities ahead of the afternoon peak.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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