PAGASA's latest 5-day forecast for Port Area, Manila, projects a high of 35°C on May 4 amid easterlies and isolated rainshowers with only 20% probability, driving trader consensus toward the tightly clustered 33–37°C outcomes at 25–26% each. This reflects model ensemble spreads from global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS, where slight variations in sea breeze strength and afternoon cloud cover could differentiate peaks—stronger onshore flows capping at 33–34°C, while subsidence and high solar insolation push toward 36–37°C. May climatology averages 33–34°C highs, but above-normal warmth from ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño adds upside risk. Watch PAGASA's daily 4 p.m. updates and heat index advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Manila on May 4?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 4?
37°C 29%
35°C 28%
36°C 28%
34°C 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
29°C or below
3%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
4%
33°C
7%
34°C
25%
35°C
28%
36°C
28%
37°C
29%
38°C
4%
39°C or higher
1%
37°C 29%
35°C 28%
36°C 28%
34°C 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
29°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C
$5 Vol.
3%
32°C
$5 Vol.
4%
33°C
$0 Vol.
7%
34°C
$0 Vol.
25%
35°C
$0 Vol.
28%
36°C
$0 Vol.
28%
37°C
$0 Vol.
29%
38°C
$0 Vol.
4%
39°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest 5-day forecast for Port Area, Manila, projects a high of 35°C on May 4 amid easterlies and isolated rainshowers with only 20% probability, driving trader consensus toward the tightly clustered 33–37°C outcomes at 25–26% each. This reflects model ensemble spreads from global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS, where slight variations in sea breeze strength and afternoon cloud cover could differentiate peaks—stronger onshore flows capping at 33–34°C, while subsidence and high solar insolation push toward 36–37°C. May climatology averages 33–34°C highs, but above-normal warmth from ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño adds upside risk. Watch PAGASA's daily 4 p.m. updates and heat index advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volumen
$20Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest 5-day forecast for Port Area, Manila, projects a high of 35°C on May 4 amid easterlies and isolated rainshowers with only 20% probability, driving trader consensus toward the tightly clustered 33–37°C outcomes at 25–26% each. This reflects model ensemble spreads from global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS, where slight variations in sea breeze strength and afternoon cloud cover could differentiate peaks—stronger onshore flows capping at 33–34°C, while subsidence and high solar insolation push toward 36–37°C. May climatology averages 33–34°C highs, but above-normal warmth from ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño adds upside risk. Watch PAGASA's daily 4 p.m. updates and heat index advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$20Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest 5-day forecast for Port Area, Manila, projects a high of 35°C on May 4 amid easterlies and isolated rainshowers with only 20% probability, driving trader consensus toward the tightly clustered 33–37°C outcomes at 25–26% each. This reflects model ensemble spreads from global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS, where slight variations in sea breeze strength and afternoon cloud cover could differentiate peaks—stronger onshore flows capping at 33–34°C, while subsidence and high solar insolation push toward 36–37°C. May climatology averages 33–34°C highs, but above-normal warmth from ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño adds upside risk. Watch PAGASA's daily 4 p.m. updates and heat index advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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