Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (36.5%) and 21°C (38.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on May 2, mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 20-21°C under a weak high-pressure ridge and partly cloudy conditions. This positioning below the early May climatological average of 22°C stems from recent model runs showing northerly winds enhancing boundary layer mixing and limiting diurnal heating, following late April's warmer anomalies above 30°C that have since moderated with incoming instability. Key differentiators include ensemble spread on cloud cover timing and solar insolation—clearer skies favor 21-22°C outliers (11.8%), while thicker overcast tips toward 19-20°C. AEMET's next hourly updates and 12Z ECMWF/GFS runs today may sharpen this uncertainty before observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 2?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 2?
21°C 37%
20°C 36%
22°C 12.6%
19°C 13%
NUEVO
$16,833 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,833 Vol.
2 may 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
3%
19°C
13%
20°C
36%
21°C
37%
22°C
13%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 37%
20°C 36%
22°C 12.6%
19°C 13%
NUEVO
$16,833 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,833 Vol.
2 may 2026
16°C or below
$1,747 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,760 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,705 Vol.
3%
19°C
$2,116 Vol.
13%
20°C
$1,065 Vol.
36%
21°C
$1,226 Vol.
37%
22°C
$1,157 Vol.
13%
23°C
$1,062 Vol.
2%
24°C
$1,790 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,337 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$1,869 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (36.5%) and 21°C (38.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on May 2, mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 20-21°C under a weak high-pressure ridge and partly cloudy conditions. This positioning below the early May climatological average of 22°C stems from recent model runs showing northerly winds enhancing boundary layer mixing and limiting diurnal heating, following late April's warmer anomalies above 30°C that have since moderated with incoming instability. Key differentiators include ensemble spread on cloud cover timing and solar insolation—clearer skies favor 21-22°C outliers (11.8%), while thicker overcast tips toward 19-20°C. AEMET's next hourly updates and 12Z ECMWF/GFS runs today may sharpen this uncertainty before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$16,833Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (36.5%) and 21°C (38.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on May 2, mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 20-21°C under a weak high-pressure ridge and partly cloudy conditions. This positioning below the early May climatological average of 22°C stems from recent model runs showing northerly winds enhancing boundary layer mixing and limiting diurnal heating, following late April's warmer anomalies above 30°C that have since moderated with incoming instability. Key differentiators include ensemble spread on cloud cover timing and solar insolation—clearer skies favor 21-22°C outliers (11.8%), while thicker overcast tips toward 19-20°C. AEMET's next hourly updates and 12Z ECMWF/GFS runs today may sharpen this uncertainty before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$16,833Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (36.5%) and 21°C (38.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on May 2, mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 20-21°C under a weak high-pressure ridge and partly cloudy conditions. This positioning below the early May climatological average of 22°C stems from recent model runs showing northerly winds enhancing boundary layer mixing and limiting diurnal heating, following late April's warmer anomalies above 30°C that have since moderated with incoming instability. Key differentiators include ensemble spread on cloud cover timing and solar insolation—clearer skies favor 21-22°C outliers (11.8%), while thicker overcast tips toward 19-20°C. AEMET's next hourly updates and 12Z ECMWF/GFS runs today may sharpen this uncertainty before observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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