National Weather Service guidance for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport shows a high near 78°F on May 3, fueling the 84.5% market-implied probability for 76°F or higher amid a rapid warmup following today's cold frontal passage that capped highs around 65°F with showers. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles agree on upper 70s peaks Sunday, driven by a rebuilding upper-level ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime heating under typical early May solar insolation. This aligns with climatological normals of 83°F, where sub-76°F outcomes are rare post-frontal recovery. Uncertainty lingers in cloud cover timing, with fresh NWS updates expected midday May 2 potentially refining trader positions before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on May 3?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 3?
76°F or higher 85%
74-75°F 8%
72-73°F 2.5%
70-71°F <1%
$35,559 Vol.
$35,559 Vol.
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
8%
76°F or higher
85%
76°F or higher 85%
74-75°F 8%
72-73°F 2.5%
70-71°F <1%
$35,559 Vol.
$35,559 Vol.
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
8%
76°F or higher
85%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Fuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport shows a high near 78°F on May 3, fueling the 84.5% market-implied probability for 76°F or higher amid a rapid warmup following today's cold frontal passage that capped highs around 65°F with showers. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles agree on upper 70s peaks Sunday, driven by a rebuilding upper-level ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime heating under typical early May solar insolation. This aligns with climatological normals of 83°F, where sub-76°F outcomes are rare post-frontal recovery. Uncertainty lingers in cloud cover timing, with fresh NWS updates expected midday May 2 potentially refining trader positions before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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