Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 64-65°F high temperature in San Francisco at KSFO (44.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 62-63°F (27.2%) and 66-67°F (21.0%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of partly sunny conditions with a 67°F peak under west winds of 5-14 mph. Persistent marine layer—stratocumulus clouds from cool Pacific upwelling and a low-level temperature inversion—has dominated April trends, with recent rainy spells and overnight lows near 55°F yielding dewpoints around 50°F that sustain onshore flow and delay midday burn-off. Model ensembles like GFS show clustering in the mid-60s amid typical May climatology (historical May 1 highs averaging 62-63°F), with uncertainty tied to stratus clearance timing; hourly NWS updates through afternoon could refine this as the resolution window nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en San Francisco el 1 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en San Francisco el 1 de mayo?
64-65°F 44.5%
62-63°F 30.3%
66-67°F 21%
68°F o más 3.2%
$17,735 Vol.
$17,735 Vol.
1 may 2026
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
45%
66-67°F
21%
68°F o más
3%
64-65°F 44.5%
62-63°F 30.3%
66-67°F 21%
68°F o más 3.2%
$17,735 Vol.
$17,735 Vol.
1 may 2026
54-55°F
$1,439 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$624 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$2,473 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$2,095 Vol.
3%
62-63°F
$1,874 Vol.
27%
64-65°F
$1,495 Vol.
45%
66-67°F
$2,477 Vol.
21%
68°F o más
$3,981 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 64-65°F high temperature in San Francisco at KSFO (44.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 62-63°F (27.2%) and 66-67°F (21.0%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of partly sunny conditions with a 67°F peak under west winds of 5-14 mph. Persistent marine layer—stratocumulus clouds from cool Pacific upwelling and a low-level temperature inversion—has dominated April trends, with recent rainy spells and overnight lows near 55°F yielding dewpoints around 50°F that sustain onshore flow and delay midday burn-off. Model ensembles like GFS show clustering in the mid-60s amid typical May climatology (historical May 1 highs averaging 62-63°F), with uncertainty tied to stratus clearance timing; hourly NWS updates through afternoon could refine this as the resolution window nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$17,735Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 64-65°F high temperature in San Francisco at KSFO (44.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 62-63°F (27.2%) and 66-67°F (21.0%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of partly sunny conditions with a 67°F peak under west winds of 5-14 mph. Persistent marine layer—stratocumulus clouds from cool Pacific upwelling and a low-level temperature inversion—has dominated April trends, with recent rainy spells and overnight lows near 55°F yielding dewpoints around 50°F that sustain onshore flow and delay midday burn-off. Model ensembles like GFS show clustering in the mid-60s amid typical May climatology (historical May 1 highs averaging 62-63°F), with uncertainty tied to stratus clearance timing; hourly NWS updates through afternoon could refine this as the resolution window nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17,735Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 64-65°F high temperature in San Francisco at KSFO (44.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 62-63°F (27.2%) and 66-67°F (21.0%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of partly sunny conditions with a 67°F peak under west winds of 5-14 mph. Persistent marine layer—stratocumulus clouds from cool Pacific upwelling and a low-level temperature inversion—has dominated April trends, with recent rainy spells and overnight lows near 55°F yielding dewpoints around 50°F that sustain onshore flow and delay midday burn-off. Model ensembles like GFS show clustering in the mid-60s amid typical May climatology (historical May 1 highs averaging 62-63°F), with uncertainty tied to stratus clearance timing; hourly NWS updates through afternoon could refine this as the resolution window nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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