Trader consensus on Polymarket, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 15.5% for 25°C down to 12% for 22°C, mirrors the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center, which converge on a daytime high near 23°C for Moscow on May 4 amid a rapid warming trend after May 2's overcast 14°C high. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud cover—persistent stratus could suppress peaks to 22°C via reduced insolation, while quicker clearing and southerly winds boosting warm air advection favor 24–25°C—against a climatological early-May average of 17°C. New 12Z forecast updates later today may refine this uncertainty before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 4?
23°C 34%
22°C 28%
24°C 15%
21°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
5%
20°C
6%
21°C
12%
22°C
28%
23°C
34%
24°C
15%
25°C
10%
26°C
5%
27°C or higher
4%
23°C 34%
22°C 28%
24°C 15%
21°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 may 2026
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
18°C
$81 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$29 Vol.
6%
21°C
$33 Vol.
12%
22°C
$39 Vol.
28%
23°C
$93 Vol.
34%
24°C
$66 Vol.
15%
25°C
$60 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
5%
27°C or higher
$31 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 15.5% for 25°C down to 12% for 22°C, mirrors the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center, which converge on a daytime high near 23°C for Moscow on May 4 amid a rapid warming trend after May 2's overcast 14°C high. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud cover—persistent stratus could suppress peaks to 22°C via reduced insolation, while quicker clearing and southerly winds boosting warm air advection favor 24–25°C—against a climatological early-May average of 17°C. New 12Z forecast updates later today may refine this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volumen
$442Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 15.5% for 25°C down to 12% for 22°C, mirrors the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center, which converge on a daytime high near 23°C for Moscow on May 4 amid a rapid warming trend after May 2's overcast 14°C high. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud cover—persistent stratus could suppress peaks to 22°C via reduced insolation, while quicker clearing and southerly winds boosting warm air advection favor 24–25°C—against a climatological early-May average of 17°C. New 12Z forecast updates later today may refine this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$442Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 15.5% for 25°C down to 12% for 22°C, mirrors the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center, which converge on a daytime high near 23°C for Moscow on May 4 amid a rapid warming trend after May 2's overcast 14°C high. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud cover—persistent stratus could suppress peaks to 22°C via reduced insolation, while quicker clearing and southerly winds boosting warm air advection favor 24–25°C—against a climatological early-May average of 17°C. New 12Z forecast updates later today may refine this uncertainty before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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