Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Moscow's highest temperature on May 2, with implied probabilities clustered around 12–14°C (18–22.5%) due to a weak low-pressure trough lingering from a recent cool spell—highs near 5°C on April 30. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian Hydrometcenter (Roshydromet) projects daytime highs of 13–16°C under mostly cloudy skies and light south-westerly winds ushering milder Atlantic air, aligning with early May climatological averages of 13–15°C at Vnukovo Airport reference station. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence limiting solar insolation for 12–13°C versus afternoon breaks enabling 14–15°C peaks; new 12z model runs and May 1 observations could refine odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más alta en Moscú el 2 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más alta en Moscú el 2 de mayo?
14°C 23%
13°C 22%
15°C 18.8%
12°C 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
9°C o menos
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
6%
12°C
18%
13°C
22%
14°C
23%
15°C
19%
16°C
6%
17°C
4%
18°C
1%
19°C o más
1%
14°C 23%
13°C 22%
15°C 18.8%
12°C 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
9°C o menos
$1,592 Vol.
1%
10°C
$1,322 Vol.
1%
11°C
$581 Vol.
6%
12°C
$597 Vol.
18%
13°C
$357 Vol.
22%
14°C
$274 Vol.
23%
15°C
$240 Vol.
19%
16°C
$806 Vol.
6%
17°C
$549 Vol.
4%
18°C
$894 Vol.
1%
19°C o más
$685 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Moscow's highest temperature on May 2, with implied probabilities clustered around 12–14°C (18–22.5%) due to a weak low-pressure trough lingering from a recent cool spell—highs near 5°C on April 30. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian Hydrometcenter (Roshydromet) projects daytime highs of 13–16°C under mostly cloudy skies and light south-westerly winds ushering milder Atlantic air, aligning with early May climatological averages of 13–15°C at Vnukovo Airport reference station. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence limiting solar insolation for 12–13°C versus afternoon breaks enabling 14–15°C peaks; new 12z model runs and May 1 observations could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$7,898Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Moscow's highest temperature on May 2, with implied probabilities clustered around 12–14°C (18–22.5%) due to a weak low-pressure trough lingering from a recent cool spell—highs near 5°C on April 30. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian Hydrometcenter (Roshydromet) projects daytime highs of 13–16°C under mostly cloudy skies and light south-westerly winds ushering milder Atlantic air, aligning with early May climatological averages of 13–15°C at Vnukovo Airport reference station. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence limiting solar insolation for 12–13°C versus afternoon breaks enabling 14–15°C peaks; new 12z model runs and May 1 observations could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,898Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Moscow's highest temperature on May 2, with implied probabilities clustered around 12–14°C (18–22.5%) due to a weak low-pressure trough lingering from a recent cool spell—highs near 5°C on April 30. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF, GFS, and Russian Hydrometcenter (Roshydromet) projects daytime highs of 13–16°C under mostly cloudy skies and light south-westerly winds ushering milder Atlantic air, aligning with early May climatological averages of 13–15°C at Vnukovo Airport reference station. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence limiting solar insolation for 12–13°C versus afternoon breaks enabling 14–15°C peaks; new 12z model runs and May 1 observations could refine odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes