Divergent short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS are driving the tight race between 28°C or higher (41.5% implied probability) and 18°C or below (40.5%) for Chengdu's highest temperature on May 6, reflecting uncertainty in subtropical ridge persistence versus potential frontal cloud intrusion. After a cool, overcast May 3 high near 23°C limiting solar insolation, May 4 cleared to ~28°C and May 5 models converge on 30–31°C amid light winds and boundary layer heating; however, May 6 ensembles split with ECMWF/GFS averages ~26°C partly cloudy (AccuWeather 26°C) but CMA hinting showers could cap peaks below 20°C if moisture advection strengthens. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover and ridge breakdown risk; watch updated 12Z runs and Chengdu Shuangliu Airport observations for resolution. Early-May climatology averages 26°C, amplifying trader caution on extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 6?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 6?
28°C or higher 79%
27°C 19%
26°C 4.0%
25°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
19%
28°C or higher
79%
28°C or higher 79%
27°C 19%
26°C 4.0%
25°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 may 2026
18°C or below
$351 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$351 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$320 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$445 Vol.
1%
22°C
$980 Vol.
1%
23°C
$306 Vol.
1%
24°C
$142 Vol.
1%
25°C
$289 Vol.
1%
26°C
$704 Vol.
4%
27°C
$362 Vol.
19%
28°C or higher
$322 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS are driving the tight race between 28°C or higher (41.5% implied probability) and 18°C or below (40.5%) for Chengdu's highest temperature on May 6, reflecting uncertainty in subtropical ridge persistence versus potential frontal cloud intrusion. After a cool, overcast May 3 high near 23°C limiting solar insolation, May 4 cleared to ~28°C and May 5 models converge on 30–31°C amid light winds and boundary layer heating; however, May 6 ensembles split with ECMWF/GFS averages ~26°C partly cloudy (AccuWeather 26°C) but CMA hinting showers could cap peaks below 20°C if moisture advection strengthens. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover and ridge breakdown risk; watch updated 12Z runs and Chengdu Shuangliu Airport observations for resolution. Early-May climatology averages 26°C, amplifying trader caution on extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ET
Volumen
$4,573Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS are driving the tight race between 28°C or higher (41.5% implied probability) and 18°C or below (40.5%) for Chengdu's highest temperature on May 6, reflecting uncertainty in subtropical ridge persistence versus potential frontal cloud intrusion. After a cool, overcast May 3 high near 23°C limiting solar insolation, May 4 cleared to ~28°C and May 5 models converge on 30–31°C amid light winds and boundary layer heating; however, May 6 ensembles split with ECMWF/GFS averages ~26°C partly cloudy (AccuWeather 26°C) but CMA hinting showers could cap peaks below 20°C if moisture advection strengthens. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover and ridge breakdown risk; watch updated 12Z runs and Chengdu Shuangliu Airport observations for resolution. Early-May climatology averages 26°C, amplifying trader caution on extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,573Fecha de finalización
6 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS are driving the tight race between 28°C or higher (41.5% implied probability) and 18°C or below (40.5%) for Chengdu's highest temperature on May 6, reflecting uncertainty in subtropical ridge persistence versus potential frontal cloud intrusion. After a cool, overcast May 3 high near 23°C limiting solar insolation, May 4 cleared to ~28°C and May 5 models converge on 30–31°C amid light winds and boundary layer heating; however, May 6 ensembles split with ECMWF/GFS averages ~26°C partly cloudy (AccuWeather 26°C) but CMA hinting showers could cap peaks below 20°C if moisture advection strengthens. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover and ridge breakdown risk; watch updated 12Z runs and Chengdu Shuangliu Airport observations for resolution. Early-May climatology averages 26°C, amplifying trader caution on extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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