Current JMA ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate overnight minimums centered near 20°C on May 20, with spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer cooling and marine influence over the Kanto Plain. Traders assign nearly equal weight to 19–21°C outcomes because small variations in cloud cover, near-surface wind, and dew-point depression can shift the daily low by 1–2°C, consistent with historical mid-May variability where overnight lows typically range 15–20°C. Recent model runs show no strong cold-air advection or pronounced ridge, keeping probabilities balanced rather than skewed toward extremes. Updated JMA guidance and observational adjustments through the weekend remain the key catalysts that could consolidate sentiment ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 20?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 20?
19°C 22%
21°C 21%
20°C 20%
18°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
5%
18°C
15%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
25%
22°C
5%
23°C
6%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 22%
21°C 21%
20°C 20%
18°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
15°C or below
$23 Vol.
1%
16°C
$176 Vol.
3%
17°C
$6 Vol.
5%
18°C
$26 Vol.
15%
19°C
$18 Vol.
24%
20°C
$30 Vol.
24%
21°C
$20 Vol.
25%
22°C
$6 Vol.
5%
23°C
$6 Vol.
6%
24°C
$39 Vol.
4%
25°C or higher
$221 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current JMA ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate overnight minimums centered near 20°C on May 20, with spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer cooling and marine influence over the Kanto Plain. Traders assign nearly equal weight to 19–21°C outcomes because small variations in cloud cover, near-surface wind, and dew-point depression can shift the daily low by 1–2°C, consistent with historical mid-May variability where overnight lows typically range 15–20°C. Recent model runs show no strong cold-air advection or pronounced ridge, keeping probabilities balanced rather than skewed toward extremes. Updated JMA guidance and observational adjustments through the weekend remain the key catalysts that could consolidate sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$571End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current JMA ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate overnight minimums centered near 20°C on May 20, with spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer cooling and marine influence over the Kanto Plain. Traders assign nearly equal weight to 19–21°C outcomes because small variations in cloud cover, near-surface wind, and dew-point depression can shift the daily low by 1–2°C, consistent with historical mid-May variability where overnight lows typically range 15–20°C. Recent model runs show no strong cold-air advection or pronounced ridge, keeping probabilities balanced rather than skewed toward extremes. Updated JMA guidance and observational adjustments through the weekend remain the key catalysts that could consolidate sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$571End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTCurrent JMA ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate overnight minimums centered near 20°C on May 20, with spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer cooling and marine influence over the Kanto Plain. Traders assign nearly equal weight to 19–21°C outcomes because small variations in cloud cover, near-surface wind, and dew-point depression can shift the daily low by 1–2°C, consistent with historical mid-May variability where overnight lows typically range 15–20°C. Recent model runs show no strong cold-air advection or pronounced ridge, keeping probabilities balanced rather than skewed toward extremes. Updated JMA guidance and observational adjustments through the weekend remain the key catalysts that could consolidate sentiment ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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