Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts anchor trader sentiment around a daily maximum of 27–28°C for May 18, reflecting typical early-summer transition conditions under moderate southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that restricts daytime heating. These values align with the subtropical climate’s May climatology, where averages climb from the mid-20s toward 29–31°C later in the month, yet current moisture and limited insolation favor the lower end of that range. Numerical weather prediction ensembles show tight clustering near these thresholds, underscoring genuine uncertainty in the precise peak rather than strong forcing toward extremes. Updated Observatory guidance tonight or tomorrow morning remains the key data release likely to refine implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?
27°C 44%
28°C 28%
26°C 22%
25°C 5.5%
NEW
$61,612 Vol.
NEW
$61,612 Vol.
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
6%
26°C
22%
27°C
44%
28°C
28%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 44%
28°C 28%
26°C 22%
25°C 5.5%
NEW
$61,612 Vol.
NEW
$61,612 Vol.
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
$4,210 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,756 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$13,385 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,972 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$5,074 Vol.
6%
26°C
$5,774 Vol.
22%
27°C
$3,840 Vol.
44%
28°C
$2,917 Vol.
28%
29°C
$6,941 Vol.
5%
30°C
$4,364 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$7,785 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts anchor trader sentiment around a daily maximum of 27–28°C for May 18, reflecting typical early-summer transition conditions under moderate southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that restricts daytime heating. These values align with the subtropical climate’s May climatology, where averages climb from the mid-20s toward 29–31°C later in the month, yet current moisture and limited insolation favor the lower end of that range. Numerical weather prediction ensembles show tight clustering near these thresholds, underscoring genuine uncertainty in the precise peak rather than strong forcing toward extremes. Updated Observatory guidance tonight or tomorrow morning remains the key data release likely to refine implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$61,612End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts anchor trader sentiment around a daily maximum of 27–28°C for May 18, reflecting typical early-summer transition conditions under moderate southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that restricts daytime heating. These values align with the subtropical climate’s May climatology, where averages climb from the mid-20s toward 29–31°C later in the month, yet current moisture and limited insolation favor the lower end of that range. Numerical weather prediction ensembles show tight clustering near these thresholds, underscoring genuine uncertainty in the precise peak rather than strong forcing toward extremes. Updated Observatory guidance tonight or tomorrow morning remains the key data release likely to refine implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$61,612End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts anchor trader sentiment around a daily maximum of 27–28°C for May 18, reflecting typical early-summer transition conditions under moderate southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that restricts daytime heating. These values align with the subtropical climate’s May climatology, where averages climb from the mid-20s toward 29–31°C later in the month, yet current moisture and limited insolation favor the lower end of that range. Numerical weather prediction ensembles show tight clustering near these thresholds, underscoring genuine uncertainty in the precise peak rather than strong forcing toward extremes. Updated Observatory guidance tonight or tomorrow morning remains the key data release likely to refine implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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