Recent Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 25°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure system and moist easterly flow that sustains widespread cloud cover and restricts surface heating. This setup aligns with the market’s overwhelming 97.5% consensus on 25°C by keeping temperatures close to the lower end of May’s climatological range of 28–31°C. A modest 2% probability remains attached to 26°C, reflecting the narrow window for localized clearing that could allow brief additional warming. Any last-minute shift in steering flow or reduction in cloud thickness before peak heating could still nudge the reading higher, while continued moisture and overcast conditions would reinforce the current forecast trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
25°C 99.1%
26°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
$175,928 Vol.
$175,928 Vol.
May 17, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
99%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.1%
26°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
$175,928 Vol.
$175,928 Vol.
May 17, 2026
19°C or below
$2,715 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,948 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,171 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,567 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$6,604 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$36,446 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$35,907 Vol.
99%
26°C
$39,298 Vol.
1%
27°C
$23,154 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$11,345 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$14,784 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 25°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure system and moist easterly flow that sustains widespread cloud cover and restricts surface heating. This setup aligns with the market’s overwhelming 97.5% consensus on 25°C by keeping temperatures close to the lower end of May’s climatological range of 28–31°C. A modest 2% probability remains attached to 26°C, reflecting the narrow window for localized clearing that could allow brief additional warming. Any last-minute shift in steering flow or reduction in cloud thickness before peak heating could still nudge the reading higher, while continued moisture and overcast conditions would reinforce the current forecast trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$175,928End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 25°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure system and moist easterly flow that sustains widespread cloud cover and restricts surface heating. This setup aligns with the market’s overwhelming 97.5% consensus on 25°C by keeping temperatures close to the lower end of May’s climatological range of 28–31°C. A modest 2% probability remains attached to 26°C, reflecting the narrow window for localized clearing that could allow brief additional warming. Any last-minute shift in steering flow or reduction in cloud thickness before peak heating could still nudge the reading higher, while continued moisture and overcast conditions would reinforce the current forecast trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$175,928End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 25°C on May 17 under a stable subtropical high-pressure system and moist easterly flow that sustains widespread cloud cover and restricts surface heating. This setup aligns with the market’s overwhelming 97.5% consensus on 25°C by keeping temperatures close to the lower end of May’s climatological range of 28–31°C. A modest 2% probability remains attached to 26°C, reflecting the narrow window for localized clearing that could allow brief additional warming. Any last-minute shift in steering flow or reduction in cloud thickness before peak heating could still nudge the reading higher, while continued moisture and overcast conditions would reinforce the current forecast trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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