Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show overnight lows for Tokyo on May 19 clustering near 19–20 °C, driving the near-even market-implied odds between those two bins. Ensemble spread arises mainly from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds over the Kanto Plain, which control the rate of radiative cooling under late-spring maritime air. Historical JMA records place mid-May average minimums at 15–18 °C, so the current warm advection signal has lifted the distribution, yet modest model disagreements on timing of any approaching frontal system keep 18 °C and 21 °C viable within the forecast window. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range before resolution at Tokyo Haneda Airport station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 19?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 19?
19°C 32%
20°C 29%
18°C 19%
21°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
19%
19°C
28%
20°C
29%
21°C
10%
22°C
4%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
19°C 32%
20°C 29%
18°C 19%
21°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
14°C or below
$123 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$363 Vol.
1%
16°C
$61 Vol.
1%
17°C
$15 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$41 Vol.
28%
20°C
$33 Vol.
29%
21°C
$21 Vol.
10%
22°C
$23 Vol.
4%
23°C
$57 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$212 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show overnight lows for Tokyo on May 19 clustering near 19–20 °C, driving the near-even market-implied odds between those two bins. Ensemble spread arises mainly from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds over the Kanto Plain, which control the rate of radiative cooling under late-spring maritime air. Historical JMA records place mid-May average minimums at 15–18 °C, so the current warm advection signal has lifted the distribution, yet modest model disagreements on timing of any approaching frontal system keep 18 °C and 21 °C viable within the forecast window. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range before resolution at Tokyo Haneda Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$949End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show overnight lows for Tokyo on May 19 clustering near 19–20 °C, driving the near-even market-implied odds between those two bins. Ensemble spread arises mainly from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds over the Kanto Plain, which control the rate of radiative cooling under late-spring maritime air. Historical JMA records place mid-May average minimums at 15–18 °C, so the current warm advection signal has lifted the distribution, yet modest model disagreements on timing of any approaching frontal system keep 18 °C and 21 °C viable within the forecast window. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range before resolution at Tokyo Haneda Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$949End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent numerical weather prediction runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show overnight lows for Tokyo on May 19 clustering near 19–20 °C, driving the near-even market-implied odds between those two bins. Ensemble spread arises mainly from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds over the Kanto Plain, which control the rate of radiative cooling under late-spring maritime air. Historical JMA records place mid-May average minimums at 15–18 °C, so the current warm advection signal has lifted the distribution, yet modest model disagreements on timing of any approaching frontal system keep 18 °C and 21 °C viable within the forecast window. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range before resolution at Tokyo Haneda Airport station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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