Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate a daily maximum temperature of 25°C in Seoul under clear skies and light southerly flow, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome above 99%. This aligns with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where diurnal heating peaks in the mid-twenties Celsius absent strong synoptic forcing or moisture influx. Model consensus shows minimal spread in guidance through the afternoon, with resolution hinging on the official recorded high at the Seoul station. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized cooling could cap readings below this threshold, while unanticipated warm advection from the south remains the primary low-probability pathway to 26°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 17?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 17?
25°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$223,953 Vol.
$223,953 Vol.
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$223,953 Vol.
$223,953 Vol.
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
$7,769 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$6,182 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$9,381 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$10,868 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$15,133 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$22,532 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$28,355 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$27,741 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$23,620 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$24,748 Vol.
100%
26°C or higher
$47,634 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate a daily maximum temperature of 25°C in Seoul under clear skies and light southerly flow, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome above 99%. This aligns with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where diurnal heating peaks in the mid-twenties Celsius absent strong synoptic forcing or moisture influx. Model consensus shows minimal spread in guidance through the afternoon, with resolution hinging on the official recorded high at the Seoul station. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized cooling could cap readings below this threshold, while unanticipated warm advection from the south remains the primary low-probability pathway to 26°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$223,953End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate a daily maximum temperature of 25°C in Seoul under clear skies and light southerly flow, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome above 99%. This aligns with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where diurnal heating peaks in the mid-twenties Celsius absent strong synoptic forcing or moisture influx. Model consensus shows minimal spread in guidance through the afternoon, with resolution hinging on the official recorded high at the Seoul station. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized cooling could cap readings below this threshold, while unanticipated warm advection from the south remains the primary low-probability pathway to 26°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$223,953End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIRecent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate a daily maximum temperature of 25°C in Seoul under clear skies and light southerly flow, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome above 99%. This aligns with typical mid-May climatology for the region, where diurnal heating peaks in the mid-twenties Celsius absent strong synoptic forcing or moisture influx. Model consensus shows minimal spread in guidance through the afternoon, with resolution hinging on the official recorded high at the Seoul station. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized cooling could cap readings below this threshold, while unanticipated warm advection from the south remains the primary low-probability pathway to 26°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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