Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% probability of onset between May and July per NOAA guidance, represent the primary driver elevating the implied probability for a daily maximum of 33°C or higher in Panama City on May 19. This pattern typically suppresses afternoon convection across Central America, increasing solar insolation and allowing daytime temperatures to exceed the May climatological average of 30–31°C. Recent forecast guidance from sources including AccuWeather and national meteorological services consistently projects highs of 32–33°C under partly cloudy skies with limited shower activity, though model spread on exact cloud cover and sea-breeze timing introduces uncertainty. Historical mid-May observations show frequent 31–34°C peaks when similar atmospheric setups occur, supporting trader consensus while underscoring sensitivity to any last-minute convective development.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on May 19?
Highest temperature in Panama City on May 19?
33°C or higher 51%
32°C 25%
31°C 12%
30°C 1.6%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
12%
32°C
25%
33°C or higher
56%
33°C or higher 51%
32°C 25%
31°C 12%
30°C 1.6%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
23°C or below
$602 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$525 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$540 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$540 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$740 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$40 Vol.
1%
29°C
$102 Vol.
1%
30°C
$413 Vol.
2%
31°C
$107 Vol.
12%
32°C
$65 Vol.
25%
33°C or higher
$124 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% probability of onset between May and July per NOAA guidance, represent the primary driver elevating the implied probability for a daily maximum of 33°C or higher in Panama City on May 19. This pattern typically suppresses afternoon convection across Central America, increasing solar insolation and allowing daytime temperatures to exceed the May climatological average of 30–31°C. Recent forecast guidance from sources including AccuWeather and national meteorological services consistently projects highs of 32–33°C under partly cloudy skies with limited shower activity, though model spread on exact cloud cover and sea-breeze timing introduces uncertainty. Historical mid-May observations show frequent 31–34°C peaks when similar atmospheric setups occur, supporting trader consensus while underscoring sensitivity to any last-minute convective development.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$3,798End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% probability of onset between May and July per NOAA guidance, represent the primary driver elevating the implied probability for a daily maximum of 33°C or higher in Panama City on May 19. This pattern typically suppresses afternoon convection across Central America, increasing solar insolation and allowing daytime temperatures to exceed the May climatological average of 30–31°C. Recent forecast guidance from sources including AccuWeather and national meteorological services consistently projects highs of 32–33°C under partly cloudy skies with limited shower activity, though model spread on exact cloud cover and sea-breeze timing introduces uncertainty. Historical mid-May observations show frequent 31–34°C peaks when similar atmospheric setups occur, supporting trader consensus while underscoring sensitivity to any last-minute convective development.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,798End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGEmerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% probability of onset between May and July per NOAA guidance, represent the primary driver elevating the implied probability for a daily maximum of 33°C or higher in Panama City on May 19. This pattern typically suppresses afternoon convection across Central America, increasing solar insolation and allowing daytime temperatures to exceed the May climatological average of 30–31°C. Recent forecast guidance from sources including AccuWeather and national meteorological services consistently projects highs of 32–33°C under partly cloudy skies with limited shower activity, though model spread on exact cloud cover and sea-breeze timing introduces uncertainty. Historical mid-May observations show frequent 31–34°C peaks when similar atmospheric setups occur, supporting trader consensus while underscoring sensitivity to any last-minute convective development.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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