Recent National Weather Service forecast updates for New York City indicate a daytime high near 85–88°F on May 17, with ensemble models showing modest spread due to variable cloud cover and light southwesterly flow. This positioning supports the close market-implied probabilities between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F brackets, as slight differences in insolation and boundary-layer mixing could shift the observed maximum by a degree or two. Historical May climatology places typical highs around 70–75°F, so the current warmth reflects above-average ridging and southerly advection; traders are watching the latest hourly observations from LaGuardia and Central Park stations ahead of official daily maximum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 17?
86-87°F 38%
88-89°F 37%
84-85°F 18%
90-91°F 5.1%
$59,363 Vol.
$59,363 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
38%
88-89°F
37%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 38%
88-89°F 37%
84-85°F 18%
90-91°F 5.1%
$59,363 Vol.
$59,363 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
$9,586 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$6,903 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$6,719 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$6,178 Vol.
18%
86-87°F
$6,498 Vol.
38%
88-89°F
$4,019 Vol.
37%
90-91°F
$5,240 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$3,759 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$3,804 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$3,694 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$3,141 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecast updates for New York City indicate a daytime high near 85–88°F on May 17, with ensemble models showing modest spread due to variable cloud cover and light southwesterly flow. This positioning supports the close market-implied probabilities between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F brackets, as slight differences in insolation and boundary-layer mixing could shift the observed maximum by a degree or two. Historical May climatology places typical highs around 70–75°F, so the current warmth reflects above-average ridging and southerly advection; traders are watching the latest hourly observations from LaGuardia and Central Park stations ahead of official daily maximum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$59,363End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecast updates for New York City indicate a daytime high near 85–88°F on May 17, with ensemble models showing modest spread due to variable cloud cover and light southwesterly flow. This positioning supports the close market-implied probabilities between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F brackets, as slight differences in insolation and boundary-layer mixing could shift the observed maximum by a degree or two. Historical May climatology places typical highs around 70–75°F, so the current warmth reflects above-average ridging and southerly advection; traders are watching the latest hourly observations from LaGuardia and Central Park stations ahead of official daily maximum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$59,363End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGARecent National Weather Service forecast updates for New York City indicate a daytime high near 85–88°F on May 17, with ensemble models showing modest spread due to variable cloud cover and light southwesterly flow. This positioning supports the close market-implied probabilities between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F brackets, as slight differences in insolation and boundary-layer mixing could shift the observed maximum by a degree or two. Historical May climatology places typical highs around 70–75°F, so the current warmth reflects above-average ridging and southerly advection; traders are watching the latest hourly observations from LaGuardia and Central Park stations ahead of official daily maximum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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