Current forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, delivering clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong afternoon insolation that should drive Tokyo’s maximum temperature to 27°C or higher on May 19. This setup aligns with the market-implied 71.5% probability for that outcome, as recent model runs emphasize above-average warmth for mid-May when historical daily maxima typically range from 22°C to 25°C. Traders are weighting the consensus guidance heavily while noting potential variability from any late-model shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could cap the peak closer to 26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 19?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 19?
27°C or higher 72%
26°C 19%
25°C 4.9%
24°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
5%
26°C
19%
27°C or higher
72%
27°C or higher 72%
26°C 19%
25°C 4.9%
24°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
17°C or below
$674 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$694 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$932 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$695 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$621 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$519 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$829 Vol.
1%
24°C
$950 Vol.
4%
25°C
$384 Vol.
5%
26°C
$701 Vol.
19%
27°C or higher
$682 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, delivering clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong afternoon insolation that should drive Tokyo’s maximum temperature to 27°C or higher on May 19. This setup aligns with the market-implied 71.5% probability for that outcome, as recent model runs emphasize above-average warmth for mid-May when historical daily maxima typically range from 22°C to 25°C. Traders are weighting the consensus guidance heavily while noting potential variability from any late-model shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could cap the peak closer to 26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$7,682End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, delivering clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong afternoon insolation that should drive Tokyo’s maximum temperature to 27°C or higher on May 19. This setup aligns with the market-implied 71.5% probability for that outcome, as recent model runs emphasize above-average warmth for mid-May when historical daily maxima typically range from 22°C to 25°C. Traders are weighting the consensus guidance heavily while noting potential variability from any late-model shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could cap the peak closer to 26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,682End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTCurrent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain, delivering clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong afternoon insolation that should drive Tokyo’s maximum temperature to 27°C or higher on May 19. This setup aligns with the market-implied 71.5% probability for that outcome, as recent model runs emphasize above-average warmth for mid-May when historical daily maxima typically range from 22°C to 25°C. Traders are weighting the consensus guidance heavily while noting potential variability from any late-model shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could cap the peak closer to 26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions